Cover The Spread

Moving Day

2010-09-26T23:03:00.000-07:00

My work is now at getbuckets.fantake.com

What should the top 3 teams do?

2010-06-23T19:19:00.001-07:00

1) The Wizards: John Wall. Period.

2) The 76ers:

Since the Allen Iverson led team made a magical run to the 2001 NBA Finals, the Philadelphia 76ers have made it to the second round of the playoffs once. And in that time span, they have had only one top 10 selection (Andre Iguodala). Neither good enough to be a factor nor bad enough to get top talent, they have been mired in mediocrity for over a decade. It's no wonder they were desperate enough to sign a washed-up AI to drive ticket sales in the competitive Philadelphia sports market.

The #2 selection in this draft is their chance to break out of this cycle. Elite NBA teams tend to have elite players at the 4 and 5 positions over 6'10. The 76ers are slated to draft Evan Turner, but is he really a franchise-changing wing? He's a very skilled 6'7 player, who can handle, pass and rebound exceptionally well for his size. But he's not a great athlete nor is he a knock-down shooter, which will dramatically affect his shot-creating ability at the NBA level. I'd compare him to the late-model Grant Hill on the Phoenix Suns.

Philly would be a promising young team, especially on the wings, with Holiday, Turner, Iguodala and Thad Young. Inside, they would be depending on the decrepit Elton Brand at the 4 and the soft Spencer Hawes at the 5. It'd be an improved version of the 76ers team that was summarily booted out of the playoffs in the first round two of the last three seasons.

As Philly knows from experience, the chance to draft #2 (and get an elite big man) only comes around once in a decade. They need someone who can command a double team from the post and grab rebounds to start a fast break for their younger players. At 6'11 270, DeMarcus Cousins might be the most offensively talented big man to come into the league in a long time. They'd be crazy to draft him, but long term, they'd be even crazier not to.

3) The Nets:

Regardless of whichever free agents they bring in (they are not getting LeBron), Brook Lopez is the franchise. As a 5 who can score from the low-post, Lopez needs another big who can space the floor and give him room to operate down low. This eliminates Cousins and Favors, neither of whom would be comfortable playing from 15 feet or guarding perimeter 4's.

If New Jersey picked Greg Monroe, they would have one of the tallest and most skilled big man tandem in the league. They'd go 6'11 and 7' in the front-court with two athletic and skilled bigs who can play high-post/low-post. Ask the Lakers how effective that can be.

2010 NBA Draft

2010-06-23T02:25:00.000-07:00

In looking at how a player will transition to the next level, there are three main questions that need to be answered:

1) Can he create his own shot? The ability to get a good look at the basket in a 1-on-1 situation is the key to any offense.

2) Can he play off-the-ball? If he can't create his own shot, he has to at least be able to make the defense respect him, either by being able to stretch the floor or, as a big man, being able to finish inside.

3) Can he defend a position? Will his body type / athletic ability allow him to defend NBA players and keep him on the floor? The more positions he can defend, the more versatile a line-up he can be a part of.

An effective NBA player will answer yes to two of these three things. All things being equal, the ability to create your own shot is the most important, while a big man (4 or 5) is more valuable than an equivalent skill package for a guard.

How the top prospects in the 2010 draft fare according to this test (the numbers after their names -- the positions they can guard in the NBA):

1,2,3) Greg Monroe - 4,5 / DeMarcus Cousins (finisher) - 5

1,3) John Wall - 1,2 / Evan Turner - 2,3

1,2) Willie Warren

2,3) Derrick Favors (finisher) - 4,5 / Al Farouq Aminu (finisher) - 4 / Ekpe Udoh - 4,5 / Ed Davis (finisher) - 4 / Xavier Henry - 2,3 / Wesley Johnson - 3 / Avery Bradley - 1 / Terrico White - 2 / Stanley Robinson - 3

1) Lance Stephenson, Dexter Pittman

3) Devin Ebanks - 2,3,4 / Cole Aldrich - 5 / Daniel Orton - 5 / Larry Sanders - 5 / Eric Bledsoe - 1

2) Patrick Patterson, Damion James, Gordon Hayward, Jordan Crawford, Craig Brackins, Greivis Vasquez

Players I haven't seen play enough to form an opinion about: Luke Babbitt, Paul George, Hassan Whiteside, Dominique Jones, Elliot Williams, Darrington Hobson, Quincy Poindexter, Solomon Alabi,

Under-rated players going into the draft:

Greg Monroe: 6'11 and can play both front-court positions. There is very little he can't do on the basketball court: he can shoot, handle, pass and create his own shot either off the bounce or on the block. Comparison: Pau Gasol, Andrew Bogut and Brad Miller.
Willie Warren: would have been a top 10 pick last year. Injured most of the season, he shouldn't take all the blame for the dysfunctional mess that was the 2010 Sooners. Comparison: Ben Gordon.
Stanley Robinson: proved he could hit a stand-still 3 at Connecticut last year. He can be a dominant force defensively due to his athleticism at 6'9.

Over-rated players:

Wesley Johnson: A top 3 pick should be able to create his own shot. He was more of a finisher/spot-up shooter at college; I'm not sure he provides more value than someone like Xavier Henry. Comparison: Trevor Ariza, Richard Jefferson.
Patrick Patterson: at only 6'8 he will have a hard time with the length of NBA 4's and the quickness off the dribble of 3's. Probably better suited to a reserve role off the bench.
Gordon Hayward: He played a lot of 4 for Butler, hard to imagine he will have the foot-speed to defend 3's on the perimeter or get his own shot off at offense. Not too many white guys starting at the small forward position in the NBA.

Biggest gambles:

Derrick Favors: did not get a lot of good looks inside last year. Lane was clogged by another big man who can't shoot and guards who couldn't get him the ball. A huge question mark offensively.
Daniel Orton: did not play much at all behind Cousins and Patterson at Kentucky. Flashed the ability to score off the block and has good bulk and foot-speed for a big-man. A wing and a prayer pick at this point.
Eric Bledsoe: can't shoot and wasn't given the chance to create much for himself or run the team with John Wall at the 1.
Ed Davis: very under-developed physically and can't score from the outside effectively. Similar to Brandan Wright, another UNC album who has done nothing at the next level.

NBA Finals: Game 7

2010-06-18T03:02:00.000-07:00

In the NBA, the best team nearly always wins in a seven-game series. In a one-game elimination like the NCAA Tourney, the weaker team can get hot and hit difficult shots or the stronger team can miss easier ones. But over seven games, averages prevail.

The team with the match-up edge gets better looks at the basket. A main offensive player is contained (Dwight Howard against the Celtics) or a defensive weakness is exposed (Dwight Howard against the Hawks). And over an entire series, the better looks quickly add up.

Two teams rarely match-up evenly. That's why there was only one other Game 7 in these play-offs (Bucks/Hawks) and only three Finals series in the last 20 years went to seven games -- '94 Rockets/Knicks, '05 Pistons/Spurs and '10 Lakers/Celtics.

It's even rarer for an NBA title to be decided in the last minute of a Game 7. The Lakers had improved from 2008 (a healthy Andrew Bynum and Ron Artest) while the Celtics got worse (KG's knee problems and losing James Posey). The 2010 versions of each were evenly matched, creating the most compelling series of the decade.

It's one thing to lose to a better opponent; it's quite another to be out-executed in the final stretch of a deciding game. A handful of plays would have decided the game for either team:

In a game where the final margin of victory was 4 points and LA averaged 20.7 points a quarter, the Lakers scored 13 points from the free-throw line in the fourth (not counting the fouls to stop the clock at the end of the game).
Foul shots allowed LA to get cheap points when they could not score on Boston in the half-court; they also allowed the Lakers to set their defense and prevented the Celtics from running after stops, where they were most effective on offense.
This is where the absence of Kendrick Perkins was felt the most. In six minutes, Glen Davis had four fouls. Gasol used his height advantage to draw two in succession at the start of the quarter and another after Boston was forced to send a double-team to help Davis.
As a result, LA was in the penalty very early in the fourth.
Even worse, Boston bailed them out by fouling as they contested jump-shots, a cardinal sin.

Boston had two more crucial breakdowns in the game's final two minutes: Paul Pierce was sitting in no man's land and unable to contest Ron Artest's back-breaking 3, while KG and Rondo didn't switch assignment when they had the chance, allowing Gasol to get the game-clinching offensive rebound when Boston was only down 3.

The game's MVP was clearly Ron Artest, and if he had shot better in the first parts of the series, he would have drawn serious attention for Finals MVP.

LA won the series on the defensive end: Boston averaged 79.75 points in their losses and 97 points in their wins.
Paul Pierce, Boston's primary scorer, could not effectively score on Artest in isolation situations. Artest was able to stay in front of him and force him to take nearly impossible off-balance shots with no room whatsoever. This stagnated Boston's offense, as they had no one who could bail them out at the end of the shot-clock.
In his post-game interview, Artest first thanked everyone in his hood. He proceeded to acknowledge the "World Wide Warriors" and his psychiatrist before promoting a rap song he recorded over a year ago.

Despite shooting 40% for the series, Kobe played very well. With LA's big men struggling, there were countless times when Kobe had to take bail-out shots because no one else could generate a good look at the basket.

He couldn't get very many clean looks at the basket, but he could always at least generate a passable shot off the dribble. Getting 24 shots up is an accomplishment in and of itself, especially with no other favorable match-ups for the Lakers offensively; Pierce couldn't have gotten that many against Artest if he had the ball in his hands the entire game.
Chasing him on defense had to have taken a toll on Ray Allen's legs; his 3-14 shooting line included many make-able shots.
That being said, I don't see how this performance somehow elevates him into the MJ (or even Shaq/Duncan) discussion. As Denny Green said, he is who we thought he was.

Rasheed's very, very effective 36 minutes a game had to raise eyebrows for Boston. Could he have sustained those averages over seven games if given the chance?

A front-line rotation of just Perkins, KG and Wallace would have matched the Lakers length for length for the entire series.
He showcased an unstoppable post-up game that has driven everyone in basketball crazy for years; he could be a top-5 post-scorer every year if he chose.
Height and shooting ability age very well; he could run the Robert Horry bit for another couple years if he wanted too. Very few players can both defend the post and stretch the floor as well as Sheed.

NBA Finals Game 4

2010-06-10T21:51:00.001-07:00

The under has covered in three of the first four games in this series. Neither the Lakers nor the Celtics need to really double team anyone on the opposing side: no double teams --> no easy looks for secondary players --> depressed point totals.

Paul Pierce: stifled by Ron Artest's tight perimeter defense.
Rajon Rondo: hamstrung by LA's lack of respect for his jumper.
KG and Ray Allen: primarily spot-up shooters at this point in their career.
Gasol and Bynum: Boston is able to single-cover them in the post with Sheed, Perkins and KG.
Ron Artest: the less said about his disastrous forays at the basket the better.

The Celtics had to depend on two bench players (Robinson and Davis) to create baskets in the fourth quarter to put the game away.

The Lakers are forced to depend on Kobe Bryant to create shots from the perimeter, which is really tough with Boston able to key in on him. That's why he's shooting only 40.8% from the field in the first four games.

NBA Finals: Game 2

2010-06-07T00:35:00.000-07:00

Going forward, one of the big stories of the game was Ron Artest's defense on Paul Pierce.

Artest, at 6'7 260, is bigger and stronger than Pierce, forcing him off his spots and allowing him to crowd Pierce whenever he has the ball and contest his mid-range jumper.
Unable to isolate and score on Artest, Pierce had to run pick and rolls to get looks at the basket and he was never able to get into a rhythm, shooting 2-11 and missing several make-able shots.

With their #1 option ineffective, and defensive-minded jump-shooters for big men, Boston's offense depends on Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen. Both are far more effective in the open-court.

Rondo's inability to shoot is less of a factor in transition and there are many more passing lanes.
Ray Allen, unable to create his own shot off the dribble, has to run through a maze of screens to get open looks in the half-court. 5 of his 8 3's came on the fast break, 4 coming from Rondo's penetration, where he can rise and fire effortlessly.

So for the Lakers the key to the series is keeping Boston in the half-court. While the Celtics only had 11 fast-break points, by my count, they shot 10/14 when the Lakers' defense wasn't set and drew 3 shooting fouls; in contrast they shot around 37% in the half-court.

LA's offense was unstoppable in the Western Conference playoffs because they have three guys (Kobe, Gasol and Bynum) who can command a double team and pass it to the 3-point shooters.

Even though the Lakers big men did a great job of finishing inside, the Celtics were content to foul them and play straight-up defense.
Bynum and Gasol have a length advantage on the 6'10 Perkins and 6'8 Davis and are stronger than KG; it's no coincidence that Rasheed had the highest +/- at +15 in the game. On offense, his shooting ability opens up driving lanes for Rondo and Allen.
Perkins is a real liability on offense -- LA has absolutely no respect for him, at one point he was left wide open at the top of they key and proceeded to rumble down the lane and throw a half-hearted air-ball hook shot.
Davis is just too short to be much good against LA's big men, who know exactly how to take advantage of undersized power forwards on the block. He shot 4-13, and at least 6 must have been blocks, including one Charles Smith against the Bulls sequence in the fourth quarter when Bynum, Gasol and Odom put him in jail with their hands straight up while Davis futilely kept throwing the ball at their hands.
The Wallace/KG combo, with two 6'11+ defenders who can stretch the floor and pass the ball, should finish games for Boston the rest of the series.

Boston's ability to let the Laker bigs get theirs without doubling puts the series directly into the hands of LA's perimeter shot-creator. Kobe has to score against the Allen's 1-on-1 defense and get open looks for LA's shooters for the Lakers to win. In that sense Game 2 was an anomaly, since he was in foul trouble most of the game for 3 offensive fouls, two of which were fairly dubious. This will not happen again.

With Kobe in foul trouble, the LA shooters (Fisher, Artest, Brown and Farmar) got very few open looks at the basket and were forced to create their own shots. The results (6-27 from the field, 1-12 from 3) were not pretty, and the turn-overs from these players over-handling directly fed the Boston fast-break.

If Kobe can shoot over 50% against the Allen "brothers" and force Boston to double him consistently, something LeBron could not do, then LA will win the title. The 2010 Finals just got really interesting.

Wager: Kobe Bryant Finals PPG

2010-06-03T13:43:00.000-07:00

Prediction: Kobe will average under 29 pts a game in this series (-105)

He has been putting on a great offensive performance in the last two rounds, but even still he is only averaging 29.4 for the entire playoffs right now.
And that's playing against the Jazz and the Suns, two fairly weak defensive teams, ranked 11th and 19th in the NBA. Neither has the kind of shot-blocking and rebounding on the interior that the Celtics, who still were ranked 5th despite coasting through the regular season.
And as great as Kobe was, both of those teams had to game-plan against LA's bigs first or they would have destroyed; Kobe will be much more the focus of Boston's defense. He won't be seeing too much zone in this series I don't imagine.
More importantly, Phoenix and Utah play at a really high pace -- 4th and 10th in pace factor respectively. Boston is 23rd. The Lakers/Suns games were routinely in the 100's, and the Magic/Celtics games were routinely in the 80's.
Playing inferior defensive teams at a fast pace = will inflate your statistics.

However,

His points explosion did somewhat coincide with the draining of his knee.
Kobe averaged 28.4 in the 2008 Finals, against probably superior Boston defense, which featured a healthier KG and James Posey.

It does feel weird to bet against someone like Kobe at this stage, especially when it comes to individual statistics. But, as he's proven before in '04 and '08, he can lay a stinker in the Finals. And I don't think he is a better player now, two years older on creakier knees after 3 straight Finals' bids and summers playing with team USA, than he was in his MVP year.

Wager: NBA Finals

2010-06-03T06:57:00.001-07:00

When breaking down the NBA Finals, the following factors will not be important:

Boston's playoff momentum: The NBA playoffs are about match-ups, not momentum. See: Orlando steam-rolling the Hawks and Bobcats and then running into Boston, and Phoenix sweeping the Spurs before falling to LA. At this level, players perform well depending on who they are matched up with, not whom they played the week before.
The history between these two teams. The only games between Boston and LA that tell us anything about this series occurred in 2010. No matter how ugly LA's loss to Boston in Game 6 of the '08 Finals was, these are two different rosters and both teams don't need any more motivation.
Kobe's place in history. While a 5th ring and a 2nd without Shaq would do wonders for his legacy, it doesn't change who he is as a basketball player: a devastating jump shooter with a great handle who can defend three perimeter positions very well but is no longer adept at finishing at the rim.

The way the Celtics are constructed has helped them "punch above their weight" in the playoffs:

They are built around being able to defend the low-post with three long, 6'10+ guys with solid lower-body strength: Perkins, Rasheed and KG.
But this strength is negated against most NBA teams, who (out of necessity) don't depend on low-post scoring.
Elite teams, like the Magic and the Lakers, do. This will be the first series in the playoffs where LA does not have a huge size advantage on the low-block; OKC, Utah and Phoenix had to resort to doubling and gimmick defenses to try and slow down Gasol, Odom and Bynum. Boston can single-cover them comfortably.

Boston has another big advantage in the back-court. At the point guard position, Fisher cannot hold up against Rondo's speed. He will have to be moved off the ball. This creates a domino effect:

Fisher has to be put on Ray Allen, but at 6'1, he can't really contest Allen's shots coming off of screens.
There is a real question whether they will be able to keep him on the floor against Boston, which would force them to rely on Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown for outside shooting.
Kobe will have to exert a lot of energy on defense trying to stay in front of Rondo, who has the ball a lot more in his hands than he did in '08.

The biggest difference for LA from '08 is the addition of Ron Artest. Paul Pierce is still Boston's most effective half-court scorer, and his mid-range jump-shooting game plays well into Artest's strengths as a perimeter defender. Artest struggles more with fast, slasher types who attack him off the bounce. Pierce shot 10-23 in their two regular season games and only averages 43.4% shooting in 21 games against him.

With effective counters for LA's low-post scoring and Boston's mid-range jump-shooting, this could be a relatively low-scoring series. The totals of their two regular-season match-ups were 179 and 175, though Kobe didn't play in the second game.

Predictions: Boston over LA in 6 (+160)

Game 1: Boston +5.5, total: under 192

Result: LA 102, 89 (total: 191)

Wager: Magic/Celtics Game 5

2010-05-26T16:11:00.001-07:00

Prediction: Boston at Orlando (under 186)

Except for the overtime in Game 4, here are the point totals for these two teams match-ups: playoffs -- 180, 187, 165; regular season -- 161, 163, 190, 185.
Boston is going to want to keep the pace down and make Orlando score in the half-court; the question is whether they will be content to try and close out the Magic at home in Game 6.

Result: Orlando 113, Boston 92 (total: 205)

Game 4: Magic/Celtics

2010-05-24T17:41:00.001-07:00

The big key for Orlando was pace, especially in the first quarter when they got out to their biggest lead of the series at +5. They can get out of the front-court match-ups (Lewis/KG and Howard/Perkins) that are killing them when in transition.

Lewis had Rondo and Perkins on him at different times, giving him 5 points and 2 assists in the first quarter.
Orlando was outscored by 4 in the second half when the game slowed down.

So the key to the rest of the series for Orlando is getting stops against Boston's half-court offense to get them in the open court. The problem for the Magic is that Boston's main offensive guys don't need to score at the rim, where Orlando's D is most effective.

Paul Pierce has one of the best mid-range games in the NBA, it's very similar to Dirk. He has his defender on a string and just patiently waits for an inch of space to get off his mid-range jumper. He is also incredible at generating contact, getting 13 FTA's. He has been absolutely destroying Barnes and Vince Carter.
Allen and KG are mainly spot-up shooters at this point in their careers.
Rondo has developed a great floater to score away from the rim (something that Nelson at 5'11 still needs to develop). However, he was in foul trouble most of the first half and never got in an offensive rhythm.

With Rondo out, Nelson had more room to operate. And with Vince Carter struggling, Orlando went exclusively to the Nelson P/R to get Rondo off of him and generate looks at the basket.

The lack of scoring from Rondo (9) and Carter (3) was one of the big stories of the game, as those are the #2 shot creators for each team.

*Match-ups to watch in Game 5:

Glen Davis, while he had some nice hustle plays in the fourth quarter, killed Boston on defense. The KG/Davis front-court can't contest Howard above the rim, which allowed him to get several easy dunks throughout against the duo.
Wallace or Perkins should be on Howard the entire game. Wallace, with his ability to space the floor and get Howard away from the basket, might need to be playing in crunch-time. Rasheed is running his best Rob Horry bit; the combination of size and shooting ability tends to age very well.
Brandon Bass can't be matched up with KG; he is more 6'6 than 6'8. KG just shot over the top of him.
Marcin Gortat absolutely killed Orlando on the defensive backboards, he allowed Perkins to get two point-blank offensive rebounds. When Howard is out of the game, Gortat has to to do a better job of rebounding in Game 5.

*Note: O/U in this series:

Under Game 1 (189) -- Boston 92, Orlando 88 (180)

Under Game 2 (188.5) -- Boston 95, Orlando 92 (187)

Under Game 3 (190) -- Boston 94, Orlando 71 (165)

The only over came from the OT in Game 4.

Game 1: Magic/Celtics

2010-05-16T13:09:00.000-07:00

Orlando, despite playing excellent basketball, and despite, in my opinion, being the most talented team in the league, are in for the fight of their lives against Boston.

It all comes down to match-ups, which once again are proving to be more important in the playoffs that momentum.

The Magic are an inside-outside team, designed for four shooters to spread the floor around Dwight Howard. This is why Rashard Lewis is so important to Orlando's system: very few guys 6'10+ can defend their position and knock-down three's.
Against a team like Atlanta, with an undersized front-line, Howard can dominate and get open looks for his teammates.
But the Celtics have Kendrick Perkins, probably the premier low-post defender in the league, and Rasheed Wallace, a long-armed 6'11 veteran, to defend Dwight Howard 1-on-1 in the post. With no defensive help needed on Howard, none of Orlando's shooters can get good looks at the basket.
Boston has an effective answer for Orlando's two main offensive weapons -- Howard inside and three-point shooting.

Unlike last year, when they were forced to rely on Hedo Turkoglu running the pick and roll, the Magic have other options of creating offense if Howard is shut down:

The Magic now have two guards capable of creating their own shot in Nelson and Carter.
One of the two has to be in the game at all times, as no one else can really initiate offense. When both sat out in the first few minutes of the second quarter, Orlando played abysmal offense -- players were dribbling the ball off their legs without even getting a shot at the basket.

This series will come down to whether Vince Carter, as an isolation scorer, and Jameer Nelson, as an offensive initiator, can out-play Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo respectively.

*Stan Van Gundy showed why he is an excellent coach today when he had Redick, who matches up with Ray Allen better than the Magic's normal two perimeter defenders Barnes and Pietrus, play most of the fourth quarter. Most coaches would have made that adjustment before Game 2 (Mike Brown maybe not at all); SVG made it in-game.

Wager: Magic/Celtics Game 1

2010-05-16T10:03:00.000-07:00

Prediction: Boston at Orlando (under 189)

As the regular season points total indicates (161, 163, 190, 185), this should be a low-scoring, defensive-minded series.
With Perkins and Rasheed Wallace, Boston has the ability to guard Dwight Howard straight up in the post. If they don't have to double-team inside, they can stay on the shooters around the 3-point line.

Result: Boston 92, Orlando 88 (total -- 180)

Wager: Cavs/Celtics Game 6

2010-05-13T15:26:00.000-07:00

Prediction: Cleveland (+1.5) at Boston

Why: LeBron is LeBron. It's funny how one bad game can change people's minds. This idea that a player needs to scowl and get mad (like Kobe or MJ) in order to have "the killer instinct" is ridiculous. Has everyone forgotten Tim Duncan? If the Cavs go small, they have the advantage.
Why not: The current Cavs alignment -- with Jamison getting killed by KG and Shaq staying in the lane (preventing Varejao from getting the minutes he needs) -- is killing Cleveland. Will Mike Brown make the correct adjustment?

Result: Cavs 94, Magic 85

Game 4: Cavs/Celtics

2010-05-09T12:35:00.000-07:00

Rajon Rondo played like a young Jason Kidd in Game 4:

He's a dominant rebounder from the back-court, with great quickness, huge hands and a gigantic wing-span. He's not as tall as Kidd, but his wing-span mitigates the difference.
It's an instant fast-break whenever he gets the rebound. He will either zip the ball up the court and wait for guys filling the lane or pass it ahead of the defense for an easy basket.
His speed and handle make it impossible to crowd him; Parker tried a few times and Rondo blew by him almost instantly.
When he does have the advantage offensively, he is still looking to pass: he had Shaq 1-on-1 on a rotation but waited the extra second to let Glen Davis cut to the basket and get a foul.
If he can consistently hit the mid-range jumper, which he was doing in the first quarter, he'd elevate himself into the Paul/Williams class of 1's.

The Celtics are his team now:

Paul Pierce has been a non-factor with LeBron guarding him. Not only did the Celtics not try to run offense through him, but he wasn't very aggressive when he did get the ball.
KG's lack of lateral quickness is just sad: Jamison abused him on the perimeter throughout. There was a sad moment late in the game when KG was switched on LeBron, he got in a defensive stance, slapping the floor and growling as LeBron dribbled; LeBron proceeded to maneuver around him in one step.

Despite being such an aging team, Boston is clearly more effective in transition, where Rondo can work his magic, than in the half-court. So if Cleveland plays offense more efficiently, Boston's offense will be neutralized.

With LeBron likely to be more aggressive the rest of the way, Cleveland will keep Rondo in the half-court and close out the series. I like the Cavs to easily cover a spread of at least 5-6 points in Game 5.

Wager: Cavs-Celtics Game 3

2010-05-07T13:37:00.000-07:00

The line-up I'd like to see Cleveland use:

1-West
2-Parker
3-Moon
4-LeBron
5-Varejao

This would do several things for Cleveland:

Removes their three biggest defensive liabilities (Shaq, Jamison and Mo Williams) from the floor.
Cleveland is suddenly a much more athletic team, which will be a big advantage against Boston.
Keeps their most effective defensive big man in the game (Varejao) while still opening up the floor for LeBron.
Still three shooters to space the court at the three-point line.
Delonte West can run the point about as well as Mo Williams, doesn't shoot appreciably worse and plays far better defense.

Prediction: Cleveland (-1) at Boston

Result: Cavs 124, Celtics 95

Game 1: Dwight Howard dominates Atlanta

2010-05-04T17:12:00.000-07:00

It's looking like a summer-league game for Dwight Howard against the Hawks. A really athletic team challenges and runs with one of the all-star teams, keeping the game close until the better team realizes they have no one to bang with their 7-foot monster down low.
Howard's court presence is unmatched in the NBA. When he is in the paint, you are not scoring at the rim or out-rebounding the Magic. In the same way that the first advanced baseball statistics mainly dealt with offense, PER and others like it don't have nearly enough of an emphasis on defense. Dwight Howard, in a way, is like Franklin Gutierrez, a game-changing defensive CF but under-valued compared to run-producing outfielders.
Asked differently, how much of Tim Duncan's value was defensive? More than half?
Howard always getting the team in the penalty by the number of fouls he draws is an under-rated aspect of his game.
The only highlight of Atlanta's night was Josh Smith making Howard get out of the way of a dunk on the fast-break, which was just vicious.
The refs don't respect Jarron Collins at all. The second he comes onto the court, lumbering wildly, they've already got their whistles ready. Any incidental contact or charge/block call is going to go against him; they know there's no reason to give him any leeway. His later attempt to score on a put-back by swinging his arms into Howard with the ball slamming off the top of the backboard was laughable.
When Jameer Nelson is going, the Magic are nearly unbeatable. He could have a big playoffs, with possible match-ups against Mike Bibby (Hawks), Mo Williams (Cavs) and Derek Fisher (Lakers).

Wager: Utah-LA series

2010-05-02T02:48:00.000-07:00

LA Lakers (-440) over Utah

The Lakers have had tremendous success over the Jazz recently:

LA won 4-2 in 2008 and 4-1 in 2009.
The Jazz are 0-14 in their last 14 road games against LA, last winning in 2006.
Utah is 1-3 against LA this year, with LA winning by an average of 11.4 points.

The Jazz can't match-up with the Lakers in the front-court:

With Okur out of the series, Utah's main two bigs are the 6'9 Boozer and the 6'7 Paul Millsap. This puts them at a huge disadvantage with the Lakers, who start two lengthy, skilled 7 footers and 6'10 Lamar Odom off the bench.
Boozer is a real defensive liability, not nimble enough to guard Odom on the perimeter and not long enough to guard Gasol on the block.
Defensively, the Lakers big' men ability to move their feet is a huge plus in being able to guard with Utah's jump-shooting posts. Odom has always matched up well with stretch 4's like Dirk, Rashard Lewis and Boozer throughout his career.

Deron Williams does have a huge advantage at the PG position over Fisher, Brown and Farmar, but there will be much better defensive help inside from the Lakers bigs than there was from Denver and LA will likely cross-match with Kobe as they did during the OKC series.

Why Shaq won't save the Cavs

2010-04-18T23:42:00.000-07:00

1) He can't move his feet in space anymore.

Shaq was never great at defending the pick and roll even in his prime, no surprise for a 7 footer carrying well over 350 pounds. Now, as he has expanded with age while losing footspeed, he is absolutely hopeless outside of the paint. If Shaq's man is setting a pick at the top of the key, Shaq is not coming out. Either the dribbler gets an open shot or defensive help is required.

2) He doesn't fit with the rest of their personnel.

LeBron needs at least one big man spacing the floor to create driving lanes. If the defense's two post players aren't being forced outside of the paint, there is dramatically less room for LeBron to maneuver.
Which means Shaq and Varejao can't play together effectively, since both are not threats outside of the paint.
Shaq and Jamison is an absolutely horrendous and slow-footed defensive line-up. There is no way to hide two ineffective defensive big men.
Shaq and Z have even worse defensive problems.
This is why JJ Hickson started most of the year; unfortunately he doesn't bring as much to the table as Z, Varejao or Jamison.

Why the Mavs and Nuggets series are over

2010-04-18T22:39:00.000-07:00

The Spurs have no one who can guard Dirk.

The Jazz have no one who can guard Melo now that AK-47 is out.

Both teams are talented enough to make you pay for having to spend so much defensive attention (doubling, helping) on their superstar.

It's really that simple.

What's funny is if they had less favorable match-ups, both players would be in line for a lot of hate. Say if Dirk was dealing with Camby and Aldridge's length and athleticism or if Melo was up against Battier and Ariza. There would be questions about Dirk's "toughness" and Melo's "maturity" when in reality they are the exact same players being hailed today for dominating Game 1 performances.

NBA Playoff Predictions

2010-04-17T21:14:00.001-07:00

LA in 6

Dallas in 6 (-180)

Phoenix in 5

Denver in 7 (-200)

LA in 6

Dallas in 7

LA in 7

Cleveland in 4

Orlando in 6

Atlanta in 5

Boston in 6

Cleveland in 5

Orlando in 5

Orlando in 7

NBA Finals: Orlando in 6 (6:1 to win the NBA Title)

Wagers: 4/9 NBA Games

2010-04-09T15:02:00.001-07:00

Prediction: Orlando (-12) over NY Knicks

Why: New York has no answer inside for Dwight Howard. The Magic are peaking towards the playoffs, while the Knicks have nothing to play for.
Why not: The Knicks' 3-pt shooting can keep them in games, a danger with a spread this high.

Result: Magic 118, Knicks 103

Prediction: Atlanta (-10.5) over Toronto

Why: The Hawks handled the Raptors in two out of their three games this year. Atlanta's big men can run with Bargnani and Bosh around the perimeter, while no one on Toronto can defend Atlanta's back-court scoring.
Why not: Atlanta has been struggling lately, while Toronto is locked in a pitched fight for the last play-off spot.

Result: Hawks 107, Raptors 101

Prediction: Chicago (-6.5) at New Jersey

Why: Noah is one of the better defensive 5's in the NBA, and should make Lopez (New Jersey's most consistent scorer) work for his points inside. Chicago is playing for a play-off spot while the Nets are locking up a lottery spot.
Why not: Chicago doesn't have the scoring at the 2 and 4 positions to take advantage of the Nets' woeful defense.

Result: Nets 127, Bulls 116 (20T)

Record NBA ATS: 62-67-1

Wager: NCAA championship

2010-04-05T06:35:00.001-07:00

Prediction: Butler vs. Duke (under 129)

Why: Butler's style of play -- suffocating defense and methodical offense -- keeps the score down; none of their last four games were over 129. They like to shorten the game as much as possible, and Duke will be fine with playing in the half-court. Since neither team can score inside, a shooting slump from either should be enough to keep the score down.
Why not: Both teams live and die by the 3, so a 3-point shoot-out is a worry.

Result: Blue Devils 61, Bulldogs 59 (Total: 120)

Record NCAA ATS: 7-6-0

Wager: Cavs at Celtics

2010-04-04T09:39:00.000-07:00

Prediction: Cleveland (+1.5) at Boston

Why: Boston has lost their last two games (home and away) versus Cleveland by an average of 15.5 points. With the Cavs going small after Shaq's injury, Cleveland has too much athleticism on the floor to handle for Boston, especially with LeBron at the 3.
Why not: Rondo has had his way with Mo Williams recently. Also Boston is playing with its back to the wall trying to avoid the #4 spot in the East, while the Cavs are running away with home-court advantage.

Result: Celtics 117, Cavs 113

Record NBA ATS: 61-65-1

Elite 8 Thoughts

2010-03-29T07:09:00.000-07:00

The least-talented team won every Elite 8 game this weekend.

Butler-Kansas State: While Hayward showed an impressive handle for a 6'9 guy, the Bulldogs had no one w/the athleticism of Curtis Kelly or Jamar Samuels. Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente are faster and as skilled as any of the Butler guards.
West VA-Kentucky: One of the most talented teams of the modern era felled by a squad who plays no one over 6'9.
Michigan St-Tennessee: The closest talent match-up of the Elite 8, but with Kalin Lucas out, I'd take Wayne Chism's ability to stretch the floor at 6'9 and the athleticism and length of Scotty Hopson and JP Prince over any of MSU's jump-shooting guards and forwards.
Duke-Baylor: None of Duke's guards have the size or shot-creating ability of LaceDarius Dunn, and none of their big men can match Ekpe Udoh's size/skill combo.

In a stark contrast to the usual pattern(http://nbaodds.blogspot.com/2010/03/bracket-picking-final-4.html), there is only one sure-fire first-round pick in the Final 4: West VA's combo forward Devin Ebanks. The talent disparity is even more glaring on the inside: there are absolutely no NBA caliber big-men left. None of the elite 6'10+ guys in the NCAA made it to the last weekend of the Tourney.

So how did this happen? How did the inferior talent prevail? I'd point to the following factors:

Shorter 3-point line: With the line 3-feet shorter than in the NBA, the long-range shot is much easier to make and the cost-benefit analysis in terms of bombing 3's is great. Not only does it not take as much physical talent to shoot them, but 3's also tend to miss long, making it hard to get defensive rebounds for them. Duke/Baylor and Northern Iowa/Kansas were both swung on the offensive boards.
Longer shot-clock: De-emphasizes premium on guys who can create their own shot; 35 seconds is long enough to swing the ball around they court a few times and have a couple different guys take cracks at getting open. Difficult to play tight D on guys standing around the 3-point line for 35 seconds.
Zone defense: Allows teams to neutralize big men and make secondary players hit open jumpers. West VA had absolutely no one who could stick DeMarcus Cousins, but their 1-3-1 zone concentrated guys in the paint and turned game into a jump-shooting contest.
The penalty: With halves instead of quarters, the penalty in the college game resets a lot less. This penalizes the more aggressive (and usually more athletic) team, because a few reaches and over-the-backs early in the second half cause a team to go into the penalty a lot earlier, which allows teams like Duke to win games on the free-throw line.

All these factors are designed to work in the benefit of the lesser-talented teams. The blue-print for beating blue-chips in the Tourney is simple: zone/sagging D on elite players, disciplined ball-control offenses to shorten the game, shoot a ton of 3's. And while this allows for the kind of upsets that fuel the Tourney, it can also create an incredibly un-compelling final weekend. The viewing public will be subjected to glorified 3-point shooting contests where teams pound the ball into the ground for 30 seconds and then jack up long-range shots.

Wager: Duke/Baylor

2010-03-28T10:04:00.000-07:00

Prediction: Baylor (+4.5) over Duke

Why: Baylor has been a better team than Duke all season; this is a classic case of a line being under-valued because people aren't aware of a team. No one on Duke's front-court can handle the athleticism of Acy and Udoh, and Dunn and Carter are more talented than Scheyer and Smith.
Why not: Duke struggles with ball pressure so Baylor's zone might be to their benefit, especially considering how well Duke's Big 3 shoot from outside. Kyle Singler will have to be huge for the Blue Devils tonight.

On a side note, I took Baylor at 6:1 to win the South Region (http://nbaodds.blogspot.com/2010/03/bracket-picking-final-4.html); this is a big game today.

Result: Blue Devils 78, Bears 71

Record NCAA ATS: 6-6-0

Wagers: Elite 8

2010-03-27T09:16:00.000-07:00

Prediction: Kansas St. (-4.5) over Butler

Why: K-State is going to be too athletic for Butler. At every position, the Wildcats are faster. At the guards, the Bulldogs are not going to be able to stay in front of Pullen and Clemente. Kelly and Samuels will be too much down low, and Sutton is not going to give Hayward an inch on the perimeter. Butler was able to minimize the athletic disadvantage against Syracuse because the 'Cuse stayed in a zone all game and allowed Butler space to initiate their offense.
Why not: Xavier brought K-State to 2OT by shooting the shit out of the basketball, something Butler is also capable of.

Result: Bulldogs 63, Wildcats 56

Prediction: Kentucky (-5) over West VA

Why: West VA is going to have a hard time scoring the ball on Kentucky in the half-court; they have no real advantages in any 1-on-1 match-ups. The Wildcats are going to dominate on the boards, since the Mountaineers have no one taller than 6'8.
Why not: Kentucky has struggled against zones all season, and West VA runs a pretty effective half-court trap. The Wildcats could have trouble scoring points against this alignment.

Result: Mountaineers 73, Wildcats 66

Record NCAA ATS: 6-5-0

Sweet 16 Thoughts

2010-03-26T18:16:00.000-07:00

Baylor -- St. Mary's:

This game looks like a private school team facing a DISD inner-city public school team. Not only is Baylor way more athletic, but St. Mary's has no experience in how to handle that kind of athleticism.
Baylor swagged on 'em: taking balls out of people's hands, throwing oops, shooting reverses in traffic, shooting one-dribble fade-aways. They sensed weakness and indecision and they attacked. St. Mary's played scared.
The announcers spent most of the first half trying to make excuses for St. Mary's, because they didn't appreciate how Baylor was punking them and because they over-estimated the Big East (i.e. SM beating a Villanova team w/no post presence whatsoever and mildly athletic and undersized guard play isn't that great an accomplishment).
Omar Samhan can't finish inside in traffic; he can barely see the rim over the arms of the Baylor defenders.
New rule: if you let Josh Lomers do work on you, you don't get to play in the NBA. I've seen Lomers play a lot of basketball in the Big 12, and he is a liability on most nights. Marginal NBA prospects like Dexter Pittman regularly destroy him in 1-on-1 match-ups.
St. Mary's -- Baylor is the difference between pros and guys going pros in something other than sports.

Tennessee - Ohio State:

Watching a high-level team like OSU attempt to play a 2-1-2 zone is enjoyable, you never get to see that type of diversity in play at the NBA level.
The nice thing about Evan Turner running point is that OSU's best player always has the ball in his hand on every possession. See: Wes Johnson not shooting at the end of the Butler/Syracuse game to see why that is such an advantage.
It is very rare that your best scorer is also your best passer on a basketball team. Very few teams on the NBA level have that (Paul, Deron Williams, LeBron); however Evan Turner wouldn't be the best scorer on any team in the NBA.
Tennessee really took advantage of OSU's lack of size, playing only one undersized big man. The Buckeyes really couldn't stop the Volunteers at the rim.
Big mistake for OSU: sticking with the full-court trap in the last-minute of the game: this allowed Tennessee the opportunity to break the press and get an easy fast-break look. Tennessee took a bunch of forced 3's in the half-court setting; they don't have anyone who can really create a shot for himself when the defense is set. OSU didn't make them earn the game-winning bucket.

Wagers: 3/24 NBA Games

2010-03-24T15:32:00.000-07:00

Prediction: Orlando (+1.5) at Atlanta

Why: The Magic have beaten Atlanta by an average of over 20 pts a game this season. The Hawks' undersized front-line has no answer for Dwight Howard in the middle.
Why not: Always hard to beat a good time like Atlanta four times in a season, especially with the Hawks determined to make a statement.

Result: Hawks 86, Magic 84

Prediction: Utah (-3.5) at Toronto

Why: The Jazz have perimeter-oriented big men to match up with Toronto, while the Raptors don't have anyone who can guard Deron Williams.
Why not: Utah has always been an inconsistent road-team, and could get caught into a jump-shooting contest with the Raptors.

Result: Jazz 113, Raptors 87

Prediction: LA Lakers (+2) at San Antonio

Why: San Antonio hasn't had an answer for perimeter big-men like Lamar Odom all season.
Why not: The Lakers are thin up front w/Bynum out with an injury, and have had a history of taking games off.

Result: Lakers 92, Spurs 83

Record NBA ATS: 61-64-1

Wager: Nuggets at Knicks

2010-03-23T07:25:00.000-07:00

Prediction: Denver (-6.5) at NY Knicks

Why: Denver's explosive offense should take advantage of the laissez-faire defensive attitude of the Knicks.
Why not: New York is one of the more inconsistent teams in the league; in the last few weeks they have crushed the Mavericks at Dallas and gotten whomped by the Nets at MSG.

Result: Knicks 109, Nuggets 103

Record NBA ATS: 59-63-1

Wager: Blazers at Suns

2010-03-21T19:34:00.000-07:00

Prediction: Portland (+235) at Phoenix

Why: The Blazers have already beaten the Suns twice this year -- they get a lot of scoring from the 1 (Miller, Bayless), they have athletic big men to keep up w/Amare and a great scorer on the wings (Roy) whom Phoenix will have trouble defending.
Why not: Due to an injury-depleted rotation that has them relying on several youngsters, Portland has been one of the more inconsistent teams all season.

Preview: Suns 93, Blazers 87

Record NBA money-line underdogs: 0-1

Wager: Baylor/ODU

2010-03-20T12:11:00.001-07:00

Prediction: Baylor (-5) over ODU

Why: ODU has little outside-shooting, and they will be unable to get to the rim against Baylor's 2-3 zone.
Why not: Baylor let Sam Houston State stay close for almost the entirety of their first-round game.

Results: Bears 86, Monarchs 76

Record NCAA ATS: 6-3-0

Tourney Day 2

2010-03-19T09:17:00.000-07:00

WVU has no one who can create their own shot. Everything is perimeter jumpers. This lack of offensive variety will trip them up at some point before the Final 4.
Clark Kellogg on rebounding: "If you can get your hands on it, squeeze it, don't tap it."
Chris Kramer is the "quintessential Boilermaker" ... I wonder what that means.

Tourney Day 1

2010-03-18T14:17:00.000-07:00

St. Mary's-Richmond game was is a real throw-back. There are like 8.5 white guys on the floor: everyone runs back-door cuts and no one can play above the rim. It's like a game from the 1950's.
Derrick Caracter was the youngest player ever at ABCD Camp as an eighth-grader. Through most of high school, he was ranked ahead of Greg Oden. He was a child star; all that fame at that young an age will really warp who you are. OJ Mayo is the same way -- really old for their age.
Someone with Caracter's combination of size, foot-speed and touch is going to play in the NBA. He looks like a bigger version of Big Baby Davis; he's got the shoulders of a defensive-lineman. If Dejuan Blair can start for a play-off team, there's a place in the league for Caracter.
Kentucky's talent is incredible to watch. They can physically dominate teams; Wall and Orton both snatched the ball out of ETSU players' hands.
As as rookie, Greg Monroe will be a top 5-10 passing big man in the NBA. It's a rare skill for someone his size to have.
Whenever a team starts knocking down a bunch of 3's, regardless of how open they are, you figure they will miss eventually. Ohio never did.
Justin Mason has the uncanny ability not to score no matter how open he is; his floaters and shots always seem to bounce around and then off the rim. It's the opposite of shooter's touch.

The Bracket: Vulnerable Top Seeds

2010-03-17T11:00:00.000-07:00

20 teams on the 1-6 seed line have lost in the first round in the last 5 Tourneys:

'05: 3-Kansas, 4-Syracuse, 5-Alabama, 6-LSU
'06: 3-Iowa, 4-Kansas, 5-Syracuse, Nevada, 6-Michigan State, Oklahoma
'07: 6-Notre Dame, Duke
'08: 4-UConn, Vanderbilt, 5-Drake, Clemson, 6-USC
'09: 4-Wake Forest, 5-Utah, Illinois, Florida State, 6-West VA

Of those 20 teams:

8 had no players who made NBA rosters, and 2 had no one who lasted more than a season.
5 had NBA players, but all were underclassmen.

So 75% of the top seeds who were upset in the Tournament either didn't have guys who would go on to the NBA or were too callow to appreciate the stakes involved. A good example is the 2009 Wake Forest-Cleveland State game, when Wake's three future first-round picks got out-executed and out-hustled by a tough, veteran-laden mid-major team.

Which top seeds this year fit the profile?

Pittsburgh
Xavier
Temple
Texas A&M
Notre Dame (Luke Harangody at 6'6 w/o shoes is not a legit NBA prospect)

The Bracket: Possible Bracket-Busters

2010-03-17T07:33:00.000-07:00

21 double-digit seeds won at least one Tournament game over the last five years:

'05: Sweet 16: UW-Milwaukee (12); Round 2: UAB (11), Bucknell (14), Vermont (13)
'06: Final 4: George Mason (11); Sweet 16: Bradley (13); Round 2: Texas A&M (12), Northwestern State (14), Montana (12), UW-Milwaukee (11)
'07: Round 2: Winthrop (11), VCU (11)
'08: Elite 8: Davidson (10); Sweet 16: Villanova (12), Western Kentucky (12); Round 2: Siena (13), Kansas State (11), San Diego (13)
'09: Sweet 16: Arizona (12); Round 2: Cleveland State (13), Dayton (11), Western Kentucky (12), Wisconsin (12)

Of those 21 teams:

11 had played in at least one of the previous 2 tournaments.
18 were from non-BCS conferences and 5 BCS conferences.
Three non-BCS conferences (MVC, CAA and Horizon League) have had more than one team win a Tourney game.
Of the 5 BCS teams, 3 (Arizona, Villanova and K-State) had NBA players on them. 4 of the non-BCS teams (WKU-Courtney Lee, Bradley-Patrick O'Bryant, VCU-Eric Maynor and Davidson-Stephen Curry) had first-round picks on them.
On average, 4 double-digit seeds won a game and 1 made it to the Sweet 16 each year.

So which of this year's double-digit seeds fit the profile:

Teams w/previous NCAA appearances:

Siena: '09, '08 (won first-round games both times)
Cornell: '09, '08
Utah State: '09 (lost by 1 point in first round)

Team from traditionally strong mid-major conference (CAA, Horizon, MVC):

Old Dominion: CAA champs

Teams w/NBA prospects:

Oakland: C Keith Benson
UTEP: PF Derrick Caracter
Washington: SF Quincy Poindexter

The Bracket: Picking the Final 4

2010-03-16T10:51:00.000-07:00

A look at the last five Final Fours shows that having players who will go onto significant NBA careers, especially if those players are underclassmen, is the key to Tournament success (first-round picks and projected first-rounders in italics):

2005

UNC (Juniors: Rashad McCants, Raymond Felton, Sean May; Freshmen: Marvin Williams)
Illinois (Senior: Luther Head; Juniors: Deron Williams, Dee Brown)
Louisville (Junior: Francisco Garcia)
Michigan State (Juniors: Maurice Ager, Shannon Brown, Paul Davis)

2006

Florida (Sophomores: Al Horford, Joakim Noah, Corey Brewer, Chris Richard)
LSU (Sophomore: Glen Davis; Freshmen: Tyrus Thomas)
UCLA (Senior: Ryan Hollins; Sophomores: Aaron Afflalo, Jordan Farmar; Freshmen: Mbah A Moute, Darren Collison)
George Mason

2007

Florida (Juniors: Al Horford, Joakim Noah, Corey Brewer, Chris Richard)
Ohio State (Freshmen: Greg Oden, Mike Conley, Daequan Cook)
UCLA (Junior: Afflalo; Sophomores: Collison, Mbah A Moute; Freshmen: Russell Westbrook)
Georgetown (Juniors: Roy Hibbert, Jeff Green; Freshman: DaJuan Summers)

2008

Kansas (Senior: Darnell Jackson; Juniors: Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers; Sophomores: Darrell Arthur, Sherron Collins)
Memphis (Senior: Joey Dorsey; Junior: Chris Douglas-Roberts; Freshmen: Derrick Rose)
UCLA (Juniors: Collison, Mbah A Moute; Sophomore: Westbrook; Freshmen: Kevin Love)
UNC (Junior: Tyler Hansbrough; Sophomores: Ty Lawson, Danny Green, Wayne Ellington)

2009

UNC (Senior: Tyler Hansbrough; Sophomores: Ty Lawson, Danny Green, Wayne Ellington; Freshmen: Ed Davis)
MSU (Sophomore: Kalin Lucas)
UConn (Senior: AJ Price; Juniors: Hasheem Thabeet, Stanley Robinson)
Villanova (Senior: Dante Cunningham; Junior: Scotty Reynolds)

The eventual champions almost always have multiple first-round and/or lottery picks on their roster. So when looking for Final 4 teams, the first thing we need to do is look for future NBA players on the top 4 seeds in each region. Only MSU in '05 and George Mason in '07 won their brackets without being a top 4 seed -- and neither made the championship game.

For each first-round pick, we'll give the team a point. For second-rounders/players on the NBA bubble, each team we'll get a half-point.

Note: there are several possible future picks who have limited roles on their current teams (Wally Judge on K-State, Wayns and Cheek on Nova, Daniel Orton on Kentucky etc.) who won't be counted.

Midwest:

1. Kansas - 4.5 (Cole Aldrich, Xavier Henry, Tyshawn Taylor, Marcus Morris-1; Sherron Collins-.5)

2. Ohio State - 1 (Evan Turner)

3. Georgetown - 1.5 (Greg Monroe-1, Austin Freeman-.5)

4. Maryland - .5 (Grievis Vasquez)

West:

1. Syracuse - 1.5 (Wes Johnson-1, Kris Joseph-.5)

2. Kansas St. - .5 (Denis Clemente)

3. Pittsburgh - 0

4. Vanderbilt - 1 (AJ Ogilvy-.5, Jeff Taylor-.5)

East:

1. Kentucky - 4 (John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Patrick Patterson, Eric Bledsoe-1)

2. West VA - 1.5 (Devin Ebanks-1, DaSean Butler-.5)

3. New Mexico - .5 (Darrington Hobson)

4. Wisconsin - 0

South:

1. Duke - 1.5 (Kyle Singler-1; Nolan Smith-.5)

2. Villanova - .5 (Scotty Reynolds)

3. Baylor - 1.5 (Ekpe Udoh-1; LaceDarius Dunn-.5)

4. Purdue - 1 (E'Twaun Moore, JaJuan Johnson-.5)

There's a clear divide between Kansas and Kentucky and the rest of the field, which makes sense, considering that the two have lost four times combined and traded off the #1 ranking all season. People have been talking about how weak the field is this year, and a quick look at the talent on-hand confirms this. It doesn't help that three teams flush w/NBA prospects (UConn, Texas and UNC) have imploded in somewhat spectacular fashion this year.

The other two #1 seeds don't have the same over-whelming talent disparities, so we'll look at the match-ups in their brackets:

Syracuse: while K-State has two excellent shooters (Clemente and Pullen), their big men aren't nearly skilled enough to succeed out of the high post, crucial for defeating the 2-3 zone. Neither Vandy nor Pitt has played or looked like a Final 4 team all year.
Duke: Villanova beat them en-route to the Final 4 last year, and many of the same problems exist for the Blue Devils in this match-up: Duke's big men can't score, eliminating Nova's weakness, while Reynolds & Co. are more explosive and athletic than Duke's perimeter Big 3. 'Nova will have a problem with Baylor, who have a veteran and tested back-court, as well as Udoh (a skilled 6'10 athlete) who has been improving all season. There is no one on the South who can match-up with Udoh, and in this wide-open bracket, Baylor (at 6:1 odds no less) should make the Final 4.

A Kansas-Kentucky title game might resemble the game two years ago between Kansas and Memphis, another supremely talented John Calipari squad. The match-ups would be fascinating (Aldrich/Cousins; Patterson/Morris; Wall/Henry; Bledsoe/Collins) and millions of future NBA dollars would be on the line. Kansas' experience and higher skill level (in particular Kentucky's inability to hit 3's) should prove to be the difference.

Wager: Lakers at Warriors

2010-03-15T06:20:00.000-07:00

Prediction: LA Lakers (-7) at Golden State

Why: The Lakers have smashed the Warriors three times this year. Golden State has no one who can handle Bynum and Odom down low, and on the perimeter, have to put one of their small guards (Ellis or Curry) on Kobe or Artest.
Why not: LA has a tendency to not play with maximum effort against bad teams. Also, the Warriors can exploit the Lakers' hole at PG.

Result: Lakers 124, Warriors 121

Record NBA ATS: 59-62-1

Wager: Celtics at Cavs

2010-03-14T08:51:00.000-07:00

Prediction: Cavs (-6.5) over Celtics

Why: LeBron is a bad match-up for the Celtics athletically. After Shaq was injured in their last game, Cleveland went small and rolled Boston to the tune of 20 points.
Why not: Rondo dominated the first half of that game, getting to the rim at will against Mo Williams.

Result: Cavs 104, Celtics 93

Record NBA ATS: 59-61-1

NCAA Thoughts

2010-03-13T11:37:00.000-08:00

Random Thoughts while watching NCAA basketball over the weekend:

RT@John Banks: wants y'all to know that WVU hoops coach Bob Huggins' warm-up suit with dress shoes look is standard formal attire in West Virginia. I used to see it on church there on Sundays quite frequently.
I love how DeMarcus Cousins acts hard after he takes a charge. He will start yelling (flexing and preening) like shifting his feet to a spot in the floor and careening to the ground upon anticipation of contact is somehow a G move. He's really proud of himself.
The announcer of the Tennessee game keeps pointing out that the players know it's a big game because he's wearing an orange blazer. Apparently it only comes out for games against Vanderbilt and Kentucky. So you're telling me inner-city kids from all over the country don't automatically grasp the significance of a rivalry between the white peoples of Knoxville, Lexington and Nashville?
Brent Musberger's inappropriate comments about Frank Martin: he's really emoting for the first time / one of the best side-line pictures in college hoops / (after narrating Martin yelling at the ref) Frank is one of my favorite side-line pictures, I got to tell you / the "rascal" knows what he is doing.
Cole Aldrich's shoots like a WWI artillery piece: it takes him a long while to wind-up and then he lobs projectiles with a lot of parabola; they have no touch whatsoever and almost always clank off the rim.

Wagers: 3/12 NBA & NCAA Games

2010-03-12T12:34:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Georgetown (-4) at Marquette

Why: Marquette doesn't start anyone over 6'6. Greg Monroe should be able to shoot over the top of anyone guarding him or pass out of the double team.
Why not: The Hoyas have been very inconsistent all year, and may have a let up after a huge victory over Syracuse. Marquette beat Georgetown at home by 3 in their only regular season match-up.

Result: Hoyas 80, Golden Eagles 57

Prediction: Utah (0) at Milwaukee

Why: The Jazz match up very well with the Bucks -- Williams will overwhelm Jennings with his size and Okur (who plays good post defense) always kills traditional 5's like Bogut with his ability to space the floor. They won handily in the game in Utah earlier.
Why not: Milwaukee is one of the hottest teams in the league, and they have re-shaped their roster since their earlier meeting -- adding Salmons and Stackhouse for more points from the wing.

Result: Bucks 95, Jazz 87

Prediction: Cleveland (-7.5) at Philadelpha

Why: The Cavs new small-ball line-up (Varejao at 5/Jamison at 4) spaces the floor well for LeBron and they have just been crushing weaker teams.
Why not: Philly is one of the few teams with the athletes to keep up w/LeBron; both their losses to Cleveland this year have been less than 7 points.

Result: Cavs 100, Sixers 95

Prediction: Memphis (-7.5) over NY Knicks

Why: New York has no way to guard Memphis' interior scoring. The Grizzlies beat the Knicks by 11 earlier this year.
Why not: Memphis' defensive effort has been inconsistent all year, and New York can always bomb their way into a game.

Result: Grizzlies 119, Knicks 112

Prediction: Denver (-5.5) at New Orleans

Why: The Hornets have no one on the wings who can keep up with Melo and Smith, while Billups is far too big for Collison to handle.
Why not: Collison can use that match-up to his advantage to and take advantage of Billups' age on defense. Paul had huge games in both their match-ups with the Nuggets.

Result: Nuggets 102, Hornets 95

Record NBA ATS: 58-61-1

Record NCAA ATS: 5-3-0

NCAA: Marquette/Villanova

2010-03-12T08:38:00.000-08:00

Marquette's starters played the vast majority of the game, with 3 bench players accounting for 30 minutes and 2 points. With 4 players who can shoot 3's, the Golden Eagles spread the ball around, often taking the entire 35 seconds to get a shot off:

Alex Acker: a super-small and speedy 5'8 1, who pushes the ball and can shoot 3's.
Darius Johnson-Odom: their best shooter (5-7 on 3's); he was able to get into the lane because 'Nova respected his 3-point shot so much.
David Cubillan: another good shooter, he showed the ability to create mid-range jumpers for himself.
Lazar Hayward: inside/outside 6'6 forward who could step outside as well as finish inside; can guard everyone from the 2-4 position in college.
Jimmy Butler: a 6'6 forward who was Marquette's best option for scoring in the paint; he used his body well to create room for himself and score around the basket.

While Villanova's five returning players from their Final 4 team were already talked about here: (http://nbaodds.blogspot.com/2010/02/ncaa-west-virginiavillanova.html), two freshmen have earned significant roles going forward:

Maalik Wayns: a 6'1 McDonald's All-American 1, he has all the tools to be an NBA player one-day: decent athleticism, good outside shot, great handle and ability to find people in traffic.
Mouphtao Yarou: 6'10 African center; a huge body w/great athleticism -- he can get up for rebounds as well as block shots. He uses brute size to score, and has no real moves or touch around the basket.

14 of Marquette's Big East games have been decided by less than 5 points, which is no surprise coming from their style of play:

They are a good defensive team who plays excellent pressure team (so they're never out of games), but they have no real shot-creators (so they're prone to offensive droughts since their offense depends around ball movement and execution).
A huge percentage of their offense also revolves around 3-pointers, so they can shoot their way in an out of a game very quickly.
Villanova was also the perfect match-up for them, since 'Nova doesn't get offense from their big men. When the Golden Eagles run into a post player 6'8 or up in the Tourney, they're going to be in a lot of trouble, since they play no one over 6'6.

Villanova is a team with greater ambitions, but they haven't replaced Dante Cunningham (now playing for Portland) from last year's squad:

Offensively they have no post scoring; though Fisher and Reynolds can somewhat make up for that with their ability to drive to the basket.
Defensively they are depending on the extremely raw Yarou (their only player above 6'8). Yarou is their only shot-blocker and player who can defend 5's, but is a huge liability on offense
They could make another run at a Final 4, but their margin for error is much slimmer than last year.

Wagers: 3/8 NBA Games

2010-03-08T07:03:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Atlanta (-7) at NY Knicks

Why: The Knicks are playing out the string, and shouldn't have the athleticism to hang with the Hawks.
Why not: New York beat the Hawks twice in Atlanta this season. A Mike D'Antoni team can always shoot its way in and out of a game.

Result: Knicks 99, Hawks 98

Prediction: Memphis (-8.5) over New Jersey

Why: New Jersey will have big problems guarding the front-line of Randolph and Gay.
Why not: Devin Harris could exploit Memphis' weakness at the 1.

Result: Grizzlies 107, Nets 101

Record NBA ATS: 57-58-1

Wagers: 3/5 NBA Games

2010-03-05T07:05:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Orlando (-10.5) at New Jersey

Why: The Magic have been rolling lately, and the Nets have been terrible. Brook Lopez has struggled mightily against Howard, and Vince should be motivated to have a big game against his old team.
Why not: Orlando only won by 10 in their first game in New Jersey this year; there is always the risk that the Nets sneak in and cover on the back end, especially with a spread this large on the road.

Result: Magic 97, Nets 87

Prediction: Denver (-10.5) over Indiana

Why: The Nuggets are playing for home-court advantage while the Pacers are playing out the string. Indiana's fast-paced style should play right into the hands of the athletic Nuggets.
Why not: Granger will make Anthony work on defense, and Indiana might hit enough 3's to cover.

Result: Nuggets 122, Pacers 114

Record NBA ATS: 57-56-1

Wagers: 3/3 NBA Games

2010-03-03T11:08:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Phoenix (-4) at LA Clippers

Why: The Suns have already beaten the Clippers three times this year. LA has no answer for Amare or Steve Nash.
Why not: The only game in LA was on opening night, which Phoenix only won by 2. Robin Lopez will need to play well guarding Kaman, as none of the other Suns' big men can do it.

Result: Suns 127, Clippers 101

Prediction: Charlotte (+4.5) at Boston

Why: The Celtics traditionally struggle against teams who can throw long, athletic defenders at Paul Pierce in the half-court. From top-to-botttom, Charlotte's athleticism should give trouble to the older Celtics.
Why not: Charlotte has been on a slide lately, and they were absolutely embarrassed by the Celtics the last time they played in Boston.

Result: Celtics 104, Bobcats 80

Prediction: Washington (+10) at Milwaukee

Why: The Wizards, in particular Andray Blatche, have been surprisingly feisty since their mid-season make-over. Foye and Blatche should both have potentially beneficial match-ups against Milwaukee.
Why not: Can McGee handle Bogut in the post? Washington is depending on a lot of young players with very little to play for, while the Bucks are in the middle of a play-off push.

Result: Bucks 100, Wizards 87

Prediction: Cleveland (-10.5) at New Jersey

Why: The Cavs have been reluctant to use their small-ball line-up, with Varejao at the 5, all season. Now, with Z and Shaq out, they have no choice but to unleash it against a woefully undermanned New Jersey team.
Why not: A potential pit-fall (non-basketball related) -- will Cleveland take this team seriously? This is a real problem with a spread this large, where the Nets could sneak in and cover in garbage time.

Result: Cavs 111, Nets 92

Record NBA ATS: 57-54-1

Wagers: 3/1 NBA & NCAA Games

2010-03-01T11:46:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Charlotte (-3) over Dallas

Why: Dallas just played the late ESPN game and has to fly across the country for an early game in Charlotte, not an easy task for the oldest team in the NBA. The Mavs also struggled against the Bobcats' athleticism in a game earlier this year, escaping with a one-point win. Ty Thomas, Gerald Wallace and Ray Felton could all have big games.
Why not: Both teams are drastically different after mid-season trades, so it will be interesting to see whether the new match-ups affect things. Haywood in the middle could change the equation for the Bobcats.

Result: Mavs 89, Bobcats 84

Prediction: Utah (-6) at LA Clippers

Why: The Jazz have owned the Clippers all season. They have a great post-defender in Okur, a big PG (Williams) who can shut down Davis and multiple wing defenders to throw at Eric Gordon. Most importantly, LA starts Drew Gooden at the 4 after the Camby trade, a big problem with Carlos Boozer coming into town.
Why not: Utah has traditionally not been a good road team, and they lost a bad game to Sacramento on Friday night.

Result: Clippers 108, Jazz 104

Prediction: Georgetown (+6.5) at West Virginia

Why: The Mountaineers, with no post players over 6'8, have no one inside who can handle Greg Monroe. A zone is not a good idea against Georgetown either, considering the array of 3-point shooters the Hoyas have around their big man.
Why not: Georgetown has not been a good road team all season, and have lost some fairly winnable games in the Big East. WVU is a tough place to play, and Ebanks' length could give Freeman trouble on the perimeter.

Result: Mountaineers 81, Hoyas 68

Record NBA ATS: 55-52-1

Record NCAA ATS: 4-3-0

NBA: Hornets/Mavs

2010-02-28T22:01:00.000-08:00

Both teams have drastically changed their rotation since the beginning of the season:

New Orleans has two rookies who have taken a prominent place in their rotation due to injuries and ineffectiveness:

Darren Collison -- a jet-quick PG at 6'0 160, Collison plays under control despite his blazing speed. His jump-shot, while still unorthodox, has definitely improved since his college days; the Mavs gave him space, especially on the P/R, and he made it all night. Also showed off a nice floater in the lane. Didn't create much for others, as he had only 3 assists despite dominating the ball for most of the game, though this might be because of Dallas' defensive game-plan. Best-case scenario: Tony Parker.
Marcus Thornton -- a 6'3/6'4 combo guard who can handle the ball, but is definitely a scorer first. Does a good job of attacking the basket and creating space for his jumper despite not having great athleticism. Streaky jump-shooter who can get hot at any moment. Defensive short-comings seem likely to make him an instant-offense, 6th man type. NBA comparison: Flip Murray.

Dallas has four new players thanks to mid-season trades:

Brendan Haywood: a long, athletic, shot-blocking 5 that Dallas has desperately needed for years. At times he overwhelmed the shorter Hornets big men on the boards with his length. Good hands and wingspan allow him to finish at the rim; he also has a functional hook shot and a rudimentary set of post moves that force defenses to respect him in the paint. The perfect compliment to Dirk, and the most important new player Dallas acquired.
Caron Butler: a good mid-range jump-shooter with a solid handle, Butler can create a look for himself fairly easily. Quick hands and strong base make him a solid wing defender, but at 30 years old, remains to be seen how well he handles super-quick 2's like Ginobili or JR Smith. The second scorer the Mavs have needed ever since Josh Howard's implosion, only concern is he replicates most of Dirk and Terry's game and rarely gets to the rim in the half-court.
DeShawn Stevenson: a perimeter defender who might be needed to guard faster and more athletic wings due to the age of Marion and Butler. Also needs to knock-down the open 3's he would get.
Eddie Najera: good touch around the rim and decent size/speed combo to guard smaller 4's. Forced to play backup 5 with Dampier out; would lose time to Tim Thomas as well if he returns to the Mavs. Ideally a 5th big man.

Despite the strong play of the rookies, New Orleans was over-matched for the majority of the game against Dallas; the real problem for the rest of the season is that their two of their best players (Paul and Collison) will have a hard time playing with each other when everyone is healthy:

They are a really undersized team up-front. Okafor, at 6'10, is a defensive tweener against elite teams: not long enough to guard big 5's, not mobile enough to guard perimeter 4's. They have no 7 footers on the roster, and are forced to play Julian Wright (a 3/4 tweener) as a back-up post.
Two of their veteran wings (Peterson and Posey) are just stealing minutes -- too old to play much defense on the perimeter, unable to create their own shots on offense and missing far too many jump-shots.
With Chris Paul out, David West became the offensive center-point; he is much better off as a #2 option/finisher than creating for others. At 6'9 without great athleticism or handles, defenders can crowd his shot and depend on help behind him.

The Mavs meanwhile look a vastly superior team and a legitimate contender:

Dirk and Haywood are perfect complements to each other. Dirk can let Haywood grab the boards and control the lane, while Haywood can play off of Dirk around the basket on offense. The two seven-footers make the Mavs super-long (especially when Dampier comes back) and one of the only teams with the size to match-up with the Lakers.
Their top 4 wings (Kidd, Terry, Marion and Butler) are all very skilled offensive players and good jump-shooters, which gives Dirk a lot of space to operate in the mid-to-high post. They are structured similarly to the Spurs or the Magic, with a 7-footer surrounded by perimeter shooters. And while Dirk isn't a traditional low-post scorer, he is almost automatic in the elbow area: 10-15 foot jumpers are like lay-ups and hook shots to him.
The Mavericks have two concerns: an inability to guard speed 1's (the coaching staff clearly doesn't trust the only player w/the capability to do it -- the rookie Beaubois), and the tendency for the offense to stagnate into mid-range jumpers w/no one to replace the slashing ability of Harris or Howard.
It remains to be seen whether the defensive newcomers (Marion, Butler and Stevenson) can handle athletic wings, a real issue with a possible match-up against Denver (Anthony and Smith) in the second round.

Wagers: 2/28 NBA Games

2010-02-28T08:51:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Phoenix (+4) at San Antonio

Why: The Spurs haven't had an answer for jump-shooting big men all season; Amare and Frye are two of the best in the business.

Why not: Parker, if he plays, has long been able to exploit the Suns' terrible perimeter defense. Lopez, the Suns new starting center, will have his hands full with Duncan on the block.

Results: Spurs 113, Suns 110

Prediction: Washington (-1.5) at New Jersey

Why: The Nets are coming off their biggest win of the season in Boston yesterday and will have a hard time getting up for a match-up against the new-look Wizards. Aundray Blatche has really exploded as the featured player in Washington's offense; no one on the Nets roster can handle his combination of length and athleticism.

Why not: Hard to bet on a young team on the road, especially as the favorites.

Result: Wizards 89, Nets 85

Record NBA ATS: 55-50-1

Wagers: 2/27 NCAA & NBA Games

2010-02-27T09:29:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Kansas (-6) at Oklahoma State

Why: The Cowboys' entire offense revolves around James Anderson. Henry, the Jayhawks 6'6 freshman wing, is one of the best defenders in the country; he has NBA athleticism and length and should make Anderson work for his points. Oklahoma State doesn't have a particularly big roster, which should spell trouble against Aldrich and the Morris twins.

Why not: This game will mean a lot more to Oklahoma State than to Kansas, and Stillwater is one of the toughest places to play in the Big 12.

Result: Cowboys 85, Jayhawks 77

Prediction: Texas Tech (+4.5) at Nebraska

Why: Tech is still on the NCAA bubble, and this is a must game against the least talented team in the Big 12. The Red Raiders should get more than enough offense from Singletary and Robinson to beat Nebraska.

Why not: Nebraska traditionally struggles in conference play because of their lack of size up front, one weakness Tech can't really exploit.

Result: Cornhuskers 83, Red Raiders 79 (2OT)

Prediction: Kansas State (-6) over Missouri

Why: Missouri's uptempo game should play right into the KSU's hands. They have one of the most athletic rosters in the league from top-to-bottom, and it is not a good idea to let them get into an open-court AAU type game.

Why not: KSU is also prone to emotional melt-downs, can they maintain their composure against the Tigers' press for 40 minutes?

Result: Wildcats 63, Tigers 53

Prediction: Syracuse (-5) over Villanova

Why: The Carrier Dome is a tough place to play, especially with a possible #1 ranking for Syracuse on the line. The Wildcats' smaller guards could have trouble passing over the Orange's length, while Syracuse should be much too big for Villanova inside.

Why not: Villanova has some bigger guards (Redding, Cheek) that could give Wesley Johnson trouble on the perimeter, and Syracuse big men aren't that skilled scoring with their back to the basket.

Result: Orange 95, Wildcats 77

Prediction: Memphis (-2.5) at NY Knicks

Why: The Knicks have no interior defense inside, while Memphis has two of the better post scorers (Randolph and Gasol) in the NBA.

Why not: New York can attack Memphis' slower big men from the perimeter; it's also tricky to bet on a young team to cover in MSG, considering the potential distractions in NYC.

Result: Grizzlies 120, Knicks 109

Record NBA ATS: 53-50-1

Record NCAA ATS: 4-2-0

Wagers: 2/25 NBA Games

2010-02-25T08:25:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Cleveland (-2.5) at Boston

Why: The Celtics have struggled against the Cavs' athleticism on the perimeter (i.e. LeBron) for years. Will they be able to score enough points against Cleveland w/o their main perimeter threat? One of Boston's main strengths is defending the post, but Cleveland doesn't get much of their offense from the low block, especially with the addition of Jamison.

Why not: Rondo could have a big game w/Mo Williams on him. It is always tricky to bet against a team w/o their star player, especially a veteran team like Boston on national TV.

Result: Cavs 108, Celtics 88

Prediction: Denver (-6) at Golden State

Why: The Nuggets play the Warriors' up-tempo game better than they do. They are bigger, more athletic and more disciplined.

Why not: Could be a free-flowing game where Golden State can shoot their way into covering.

Result: Nuggets 127, Warriors 112

Record NBA ATS: 52-50-1

Wager: Blazers at Nets

2010-02-23T06:57:00.001-08:00

Prediction: Portland (-7.5) at New Jersey

Why: The Blazers have the size to bother Lopez in the post and should overwhelm New Jersey on the perimeter. There are few 4's in the NBA who Chairman Yi can match-up with; Aldridge is not one of them.

Why not: Will Portland take the Nets seriously? The spread is big enough the Nets could sneak back in and cover at the very end.

Result: Portland 102, New Jersey 93

Record NBA ATS: 50-50-1

Wagers: 2/22 NBA & NCAA Games

2010-02-22T09:07:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Chicago (-2) at Washington

Why: Derrick Rose should slice through a Washington team that plays little defense and has been dramatically remade over the last week, losing their top 3 players in trades.

Why not: Who knows how all the pieces in DC will fit together? Can the young players in the front-line (Blatche and McGee) live up to their potential on a nightly basis? How will Thornton and Howard respond to being the main options on offense for the first time in their career?

Result: Wizards 101, Bulls 95

Prediction: Milwaukee (+1.5) at NY Knicks

Why: The Bucks two main threats (Jennings and Bogut) should make quick work of the Knicks' inferior defenders at the 1 and 5 positions.

Why not: The Knicks looked surprisingly feisty in T-Mac's debut on Saturday.

Result: Bucks 83, Knicks 67

Prediction: Oklahoma (+21.5) at Kansas

Why: The Sooners are one of the few college teams not out-matched by Kansas athletically. While they have underachieved this year, they have several HS All-Americans. Tommy Mason-Griffin, in particular, has dramatically improved his game as the season has gone on. Kansas, while undefeated, has been beating far worse Big 12 teams than OU by a lot less than 21 points.

Why not: Always tough to count on freshmen on the road, especially against a tested, veteran outfit like the Jayhawks.

Result: Jayhawks 81, Sooners 68

Record NBA ATS: 49-50-1

Record NCAA ATS: 1-1-0

NCAA: OSU/MSU

2010-02-21T09:16:00.000-08:00

Ohio State is headlined by Evan Turner, a ck All-American:

Turner: a 6'7 smooth point forward who always plays under control. He is incredibly skilled for his size -- making pinpoint passes through the lane and using his body to post up and shoot over smaller guards. Has a good-looking mid-range jumper that he can get off at will. A smart player who knows how to use his length to affect the game in the paint and the passing lanes. Lacks top-flight explosiveness, so rarely drives all the way to the basket. A top 5 player in the upcoming draft. NBA comparison: Grant Hill.

The Buckeyes are not a deep team, but get excellent contributions from their top 6:

Dallas Lauderdale: an athletic 6'8 post with an incredibly long 7'5 wingspan. This allows him to finish in the lane, grab rebounds and defend the paint.
David Lighty and Chris Buford: two athletic 6'5 wings who shoot and attack the basket, playing well off of Turner.
Jon Diebler: a knock-down 6'6 shooter who spaces the floor for OSU's athletic guards.
Kyle Madsen: a 6'9 pick and pop post shooter who throws his body around in the paint.

Big Picture:

Ohio State has the tools to be a Final 4 team -- an All-American who can create his own shot, shooters to space the floor, guards to attack the basket and big men to defend the paint and grab rebounds. They also create a ton of match-ups for college teams with a backcourt that goes 6'7, 6'5, 6'6. But like Georgetown, depth is a huge problem for the Buckeyes -- 4 of their starters played the entire 40 minutes. If they can stay out of foul trouble, they could surprise some teams in the Tourney.
Michigan State looks more like a Sweet 16 team. They are well-coached and fundamentally sound, but with Lucas hobbled, they have no one who can get into the lane consistently along with a dramatically undersized front-line. As a result, they depend almost entirely on fade-away jumpers on offense, which makes them prone to scoring droughts.

Wagers: 2/21 NBA Games

2010-02-21T09:07:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Denver (-4) over Boston

Why: Boston struggles against teams with athletic 3's, since so much of their offense depends on Paul Pierce. Denver is one of the most athletic teams in the NBA top-to-bottom which should give problems for the aging Celtics, especially on the last game of a 5-game road-trip.

Why not: Billups might have a hard time with Rondo's speed or chasing Allen around screens for 40 minutes.

Result: Nuggets 114, Celtics 105

Prediction: Memphis (-4.5) at New Jersey

Why: New Jersey doesn't have the fire-power to stay with Memphis. There is no way Yi can handle Randolph on the block, while Gasol is one of the few 5's with the size and power to stick with Lopez.

Why not: Memphis has struggled as of late. Harris could have a big game against Memphis' contingent of 1's -- the Grizzlies weak-spot.

Result: Grizzlies 104, Nets 94

Prediction: Atlanta (-5.5) at Golden State

Why: The Hawks play the Warriors' up-tempo game better than Golden State does. Smith and Horford should carve up Golden State's front-court while Crawford and Johnson are too big for the Warriors' undersized back-court.

Why not: Can Curry and Ellis use their speed and turn the mismatch around against the Hawks' bigger guards? They will need to bomb away to stay in this game.

Result: Warriors 108, Hawks 104

Prediction: Sacramento (+10) at Phoenix

Why: This is the fourth game between the two division rivals, and Phoenix has never beaten Sacramento by more than 8 points. For every point the Suns score against the Kings, they give it right back against the younger and more athletic team. They have no one to contain Evans on the perimeter.

Why not: How will Landry fit into the Kings dynamic? A lot of their players need touches. Sacramento's lack-luster team D (a testament to their youth) has been their undoing against the Suns' offense.

Result: Suns 104, Kings 88

Record NBA ATS: 48-49-1

Wagers: Thunder at Knicks

2010-02-20T08:25:00.000-08:00

Prediction: OKC (-6) over NY Knicks

Why: OKC is quickly rounding into one of the top teams in the West, and should have no trouble with a trade-depleted Knicks squad. The defensive match-ups for New York are horrendous -- Gallinari on Durant or Green, Duhon on Westbrook.

Why not: How will T-Mac look in D'Antoni's free-flowing offense in his first significant action in over a year? A real unknown. How much did the Oklahoma players explore the night-life in NYC on Friday?

Results: Thunder 121, Knicks 118 (OT)

Record NBA ATS: 46-47-1

Wagers: 2/19 NBA Games

2010-02-19T07:56:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Chicago (-1) at Minnesota

Why: The Bulls already beat Minnesota by 14 earlier this year. Joakim Noah is one of the better defenders at the post position which should somewhat negate Minnesota's only source of offense (Al Jefferson), while Derrick Rose should be able to dominate Jonny Flynn at the point.

Why not: This is the first game for Chicago after a fairly size-able roster reconstruction at the trade deadline. Two starters were shipped out (Thomas and Salmons) while newly acquired Flip Murray should see significant minutes.

Result: Bulls 100, Wolves 94

Prediction: Atlanta (+4) at Phoenix

Why: The Suns will have trouble with the Hawks athleticism. In the fourth quarter, there will be no one to hide Steve Nash on on D.

Why not: The Hawks escaped with a last-second Jamal Crawford 3 in their first meeting in Phoenix. Atlanta has struggled against seven-footers this year, and Robin Lopez has surprisingly started to come on.

Result: Suns 88, Hawks 80

Prediction: Milwaukee (o) at Detroit

Why: Bogut should have a big game on the inside, as Detroit has to depend on the aging Ben Wallace to defend post players.

Why not: Rodney Stuckey had a big game in their earlier match-up; he is much too big for Jennings. And asides from Bynum, most of the Pistons back-court is fairly large (Stuckey, Hamilton and Gordon).

Result: Bucks 91, Pistons 85

Prediction: Toronto (-2.5) at New Jersey

Why: The Raptors have already trounced the Nets twice this year. New Jersey has absolutely no match-up for Chris Bosh: Yi Jianlian will not cut it.

Why not: New Jersey has been surprisingly feisty in their two games since the All-Star break, and Brook Lopez could do work on the Raptors soft front-court in the paint.

Result: Raptors 106, Nets 89

Prediction: Memphis (-6.5) over Miami

Why: The Grizzlies have far too much firepower for the Heat, who have only two guys (Wade and Beasley) they can count on to consistently give them points.

Why not: Miami is fighting for their playoff lives, and 6.5 is a lot for Memphis to cover, especially with D-Wade on the war-path.

Result: Heat 100, Grizzlies 87 (2OT)

Record NBA ATS: 46-46-1

Behind the Bets: San Antonio Spurs

2010-02-17T11:45:00.000-08:00

The Spurs have been the most consistently over-valued team in the NBA all season. While they still have a strong base of talent, they have one glaring flaw that has been consistently exploited by opposing teams all season: an inability to guard perimeter-oriented big men.

As he gets older and loses foot-speed, Tim Duncan has been forced to operate exclusively in the paint this year. This leaves the trio of Matt Bonner (too white), Antonio McDyess (too old) and DeJuan Blair (too fat) to guard the new wave of jump-shooting power forwards across the NBA.

The results have not been pretty:

11/5: Carlos Boozer 27 pts (12-20 FG)
11/9: Chris Bosh 32 pts (8-16 FG)
11/14: Jeff Green 21 pts (8-19 FG)
11/18: Dirk Nowitzki 41 pts (15-29 FG)
12/3: Kevin Garnett 20 pts (9-15 FG)
12/7: Carlos Boozer 27 pts (10-18 FG)
12/15: Amare Stoudemire 28 pts (12-21 FG)
12/19: Troy Murphy 21 pts (8-13 FG)
12/23: LaMarcus Aldridge 22 pts (9-13 FG)
1/13: Jeff Green 16 pts (7-9 FG)
1/15: Boris Diaw 26 pts (1o-14 FG)
1/20: Carlos Boozer 31 pts (12-17 FG)
2/4: LaMarcus Aldridge 28 pts (12-22 FG)

Its the main reason why the Jazz (Carlos Boozer) swept the Spurs this year and the Mavs (Dirk Nowitzki) have prevailed in their last two play-off struggles. This glaring weakness is holding back an otherwise very strong team with a +4.7 point differential -- good enough for #4 in the West and only .3 off #2 Denver. If any team needs to make a move by the trade-deadline it's the Spurs, especially if the rumors of their interest in the eminently available Tyrus Thomas are accurate.

Wager: Spurs at Pacers

2010-02-17T11:36:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Indiana (+4.5) at San Antonio

Why: The Spurs have struggled against perimeter big-men like Troy Murphy all season. Danny Granger should be too much for the aging Richard Jefferson. San Antonio escaped with a one-point victory against Indiana after a last-second Tim Duncan dunk in December.

Why not: Jeff Foster, Indiana's best post defender, is out for the season now. Duncan might be able to pull into his bag of veteran tricks against Roy Hibbert.

Result: Spurs 90, Pacers 87

NBA Record ATS: 43-44-1

Wagers: 2/16 NBA & NCAA Games

2010-02-16T11:17:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Utah (-3) at Houston

Why: The Jazz have been a match-up nightmare for the Rockets for years. Houston's depends on strong defense of 2's and 3's from Battier and Ariza, but Utah doesn't get much scoring from either position. Deron Williams is too big for Aaron Brooks at 1, while the Jazz perimeter big men don't operate much in the post.

Why not: Can Boozer guard Landry? Brooks might use his speed against Williams.

Result: Jazz 104, Rockets 95

Prediction: Memphis (0) over Phoenix

Why: Memphis has two good post scorers (Gasol and Randolph) while neither of the Suns' big men likes to play in the paint.

Why not: The match-up can go both ways, as Frye and Stoudemire can score on the Grizzlies from the perimeter.

Result: Suns 109, Grizzlies 95

Prediction: Texas Tech (+11.5) at Baylor

Why: The Red Raiders are a fringe NCAA team and not much worse than Baylor.

Why not: Udoh might dominate Tech on the inside.

Result: Baylor 88, Tech 70

NBA ATS: 42-44-1

NCAA ATS: 0-1

NCAA: Duke/UNC

2010-02-10T20:27:00.000-08:00

Duke is a "big 3" and a collection of role players:

Jon Scheyer: a great shooter who does a good job of running the offense. He can't drive 1-on-1 against athletic guys, but he should be comfortable with the P/R. Will find a place in the pros as a back-up combo guard due to his shooting and ball-handling. NBA comparison: Steph Curry.
Nolan Smith: Duke's most athletic perimeter player; he is the best driver on the team too. Showed a smooth release and the ability to hit a step-back jumper. His ability to defend 1's will determine whether he makes it in the NBA.
Kyle Singler: a knock-down shooter at 6'8 with surprising athleticism. He can take the ball to the rim if pressured, but not comfortable making plays on the move. Played good perimeter defense on Will Graves; he is not your average white combo forward.
Three athletic big men (Thomas, Plumlee brothers) who can defend the post, but aren't really threats on offense.

UNC has an NBA-caliber starting front-court, and a lot of their problems can be attributed to their best two players combining for 11 shots:

Ed Davis: a long and skilled big man who somehow only finished with 4 shots. He was instantly double-teamed on the rare occasion when he got a post touch, and made several excellent passes in the paint. Runs the floor very well and has good body control which allows him to finish inside. Uses his length to block shots and rebound the ball. Needs to develop a more consistent jump-shot and put on some bulk to defend post-ups on the next level. Will be a lottery pick whenever he comes out.
Deon Thompson: an undersized 4 in the NBA with decent athleticism and good perimeter skills. His inability to effectively rebound really hurt UNC; this is a problem b/c most of the players with his body type and skill set are primarily rebounders on the next level. Could be a JJ Hickson type playing off a true 5.

Two of UNC's freshman are NBA guys down the road:

Dexter Strickland: a 6'3 combo guard with incredible speed and shot-making ability. Currently plays with too much swag (similar to Texas' J'Covan Brown) and needs to learn how to play under control in non-AAU setting.
John Henson: just a preposterous body type -- 6'10 195 w/incredibly long arms. He has an incredible combination of length and athleticism and a pretty good skill-set. He can't score b/c defenders use his lack of strength against him and force him to fade-away as he tries to finish.

Big Picture:

Duke's main problem in the Tourney will be on offense: they have no one who can score on the block and no one who consistently takes the ball to the hoop (their three main scorers are all more comfortable taking jumpers). They also have no effective back-ups for any of the big 3; foul trouble would ruin them. If a team has the athletes to play aggressive man defense on the perimeter, than the Blue Devils are in trouble.
With Roy Williams clearly not trusting his freshman guards (Strickland and McDonald), he is forced to start three "guys" on the perimeter. And while Graves is a good shooter and Ginyard (while hobbled) is still a passable perimeter defender, neither can create their own shot or make an acceptable entry pass. The Tar Heels PG (Larry Drew II) can't play at this level; he is a walking turn-over who was forced to take 15 (mostly bad) shots b/c Duke did not respect his game. This overall lack of talent in the back-court for a program the caliber of UNC is shocking, and is the main reason why the Tar Heels won't be in the Tourney this year. Williams, much like Texas' Barnes, should have been allowing his talented freshman to learn the game earlier in the year instead of sticking with upper-classmen who cannot play.

Wager: Lakers at Jazz

2010-02-10T16:06:00.000-08:00

Prediction: LA Lakers (+6) at Utah

Why: The Jazz have traditionally had trouble guarding the Gasol/Odom front-court, which was the primary reason (not Kobe) why the Lakers have beaten them in the playoffs the last two years.

Why not: Deron Williams has been playing like the best 1 in basketball w/Paul injured, and the PG position is the weakest position on the Lakers defensively.

Result: Lakers 96, Jazz 81

Record ATS: 41-43-1

NCAA: MSU/Purdue

2010-02-10T08:43:00.000-08:00

Key players on Purdue:

E'Twaun Moore: an incredibly smooth 2 guard with an effortless jumper. Can stroke from any part of the floor; not as effective when pressured and forced to drive to the hole. Purdue's main shot-creator: they will go as far as he takes them in the Tourney. Should find a place in the NBA as a combo guard, however he might be a defensive tweener.
Jajuan Johnson: an athletic string-bean forward with a long wingspan. Has good touch on his jumper -- he can score on the block and shoot from the outside. Defensively did a good job protecting the rim against drives, but struggled with guys muscling him on the block and did not seem comfortable guarding the perimeter. Also has a lot of defensive questions before he thinks of making a jump to the league.
Robbie Hummel: a great shooter who finishes well inside, but had trouble getting open looks against the length and athleticism of MSU's Delvin Roe. Plays like a broke-ass Kyle Singler.
Lewis Jackson: does a good job of running the point -- handling the ball and playing the P/R.
Three athletic guards (Kramer, Barlow and Grant) who know their roles -- stretching the floor, attacking the basket and playing aggressive perimeter D.

Michigan State had a hard time creating offense with their best player (Lucas) hobbled:

They have three knock-down jump-shooters (Allen, Lucious and Summers) who are better off being set-up than creating their own looks. MSU took a lot of fade-away step-back jumpers.
Their big men (Morgan, Roe and Green) are also much better playing off the ball and finishing then trying to create.

Big Picture:

MSU: The Spartans are a team that depends on playing great perimeter defense to create turnovers and get them an open court to hit open jumpers. If a defense can set, they are in a lot of trouble: they can't score on the block and they can't drive to the basket without Lucas. If they play a team with a legit big man and/or knock-down shooters preventing them from going into a zone, they are in trouble.
Purdue: is a very skilled offensive team who can also play great perimeter defense. Their motion offense combined with their shooting ability gets them a lot of good looks at the basket. They could very well be a Final 4 team, provided they don't run into a dominant big man in the Tourney: Johnson, their center, is 6'10 215.

Wager: Thunder at Blazers

2010-02-09T17:27:00.000-08:00

Prediction: OKC (-1.5) at Portland

Why: The Thunder have the length and athleticism to bother Andre Miller and match-up with Aldridge. Durant has been a top 10 player all year, and if you have a player who can always get his shot winning on the road is a lot easier -- the Thunder are only one game worse on the road than at home this year. With their big men corps depleted by injuries, the Blazers can't take advantage of OKC's weak interior defense.

Why not: Portland has been one of the most inconsistent teams in the league this year due to all their injuries. Their guys who have been bumped up in the rotation (Fernandez, Bayless and Miller) are very streaky scorers.

Result: Thunder 89, Blazers 77

Record ATS: 40-43-1

NCAA: West Virginia/Villanova

2010-02-09T09:45:00.000-08:00

Key players on Villanova:

Scottie Reynolds: a smooth, four-year starter at point. Good shooter with great handles, but really struggles against athletic length -- Ebanks kept him in check most of the game. Does a good job running the team and playing the passing lanes on defense. Lack of elite athleticism will prevent him from being anything better than an average NBA defender. Should find a place in the NBA as a 10-year back-up point guard.
Corey Fisher: an excellent scorer with good body control, a floater and a step-back jump shot. Can score from the point position in the NBA; he will need to prove he can run a team next year after Reynolds leaves.
Dominic Cheek: a 6'6 freshman 2; probably the best NBA prospect on the Wildcats. Can get to the basket and shoot from the outside; could play more but plays behind a lot of upperclassmen.
Isaiah Armwood: an athletic 6'7 forward; he is the most active of Nova's big men.
Reggie Redding: a good shooter at 6'5; played good perimeter defense using his length and foot-speed on Butler.
Antonio Pena: a solid big man who does a good job of playing off the Wildcat guards and finishing in the lane.

West Virginia has two first-round picks, but no legitimate shot-creators:

Da'Sean Butler: a 6'7 pure-shooting senior 3 who spends the vast majority of his time hanging around the three-point line. Shows the ability to drive, but not terribly comfortable at it. His ability to play man-to-man defense will determine whether he can start on the next level.
Devin Ebanks: a 6'9 3/4 with an elite athleticism and a long wingspan. An excellent defender who had the foot-speed to harass the smaller Reynolds all night. He can finish in the lane, but shows little ability to shoot from the outside or create his own shot. Needs to stay in school and develop his offensive game; he should try to emulate Stanley Robinson at UConn.
Two decent big men (Kevin Jones and Deniz Kilicli) at 6'8 who rebound and use their bodies well to score in the lane.
Two wings (Casey Mitchell and Darryl "Truck" Bryant) who can space the floor.

While this was a match-up of two top 5 teams, neither has much of a chance at winning the NCAA title this year. Both could make back-door runs at the Final 4 depending on the match-ups, but probably won't be the favorite in their respective brackets. Each team has one fatal flaw:

Villanova: a really skilled offensive team with good shooters and shot-creator around the perimeter. But they have very little interior defense or rebounding; their two best posts (Pena and Armwood) are both 6'7/6'8. WVU's collection of average big men was putting in work down low on Nova. They need to avoid guys like Monroe, Cousins or Pittman at all costs in the Tourney.
West Virginia: an athletic team that plays excellent pressure defense and has a great collection of shooters. However they have no one who can consistently create their own shot against athletic 1-on-1 perimeter defense like Nova's. They spent an awful lot of the game aimlessly dribbling around. There is no reason to ever zone a team like WVU; they could present a lot of problems for a team like Syracuse.

Wager: Knicks at Cavs

2010-02-06T12:29:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Cleveland (-12.5) over New York

Why: The Cavs have been crushing good teams at home lately. Hickson and Varejao should match up fairly well with David Lee, and LeBron is LeBron.

Why not: 12.5 is a lot of points for a fringe playoff team like the Knicks, especially considering their ability to bomb away from the three-point line.

Result: Cavs 113, Knicks 106

Record ATS: 39-43-1

LeBron Inc?

2010-02-05T17:56:00.001-08:00

I was talking to a girl the other day who had NO IDEA who Peyton Manning was, but she sure as hell knew about Kobe/LeBron. These guys are international megastars, and their value to franchises has got to be higher than 15-20 million bucks a year. Just look at how high the value of the Cavs franchise has jumped since 2003.

How can you calculate someone like LeBron's value to the city of Cleveland? Overseas no one knows anything about Cleveland besides the Cavs. Say they won the NBA championship this year; think about how much championship merchandise the Cavs would sell world-wide and what a great boon to the economy of Cleveland that would represent.

Why can't LeBron see some of that cash? Would it be possible for him to set up a front corporation and tell the city of Cleveland that he wants tax breaks and real estate deals if he is going to stay in town? What if he created a bidding war between New York, Cleveland and Miami to see what kind of sweet-heart deal he could get on downtown real estate to play basketball in the city?

Owners and corporations do this all the time. Why couldn't a player?

Wagers: 2/3 NBA Games

2010-02-03T08:43:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Sacramento (+4) over San Antonio

Why: The Kings length and athleticism in the front-court (Thompson) and the back-court (Evans) will be a lot for the Spurs to handle. While they lost by 12 in San Antonio earlier this year, the game was tied with 4:00 left.

Why not: Ever since Martin returned from injury, the Kings have been in a tail-spin. They are 1-9 in their last 10 games. They are a young team that doesn't play much defense, so Tim Duncan could have a huge game.

Result: Spurs 115, Kings 113

Prediction: Charlotte (+9) at LA Lakers

Why: The Bobcats have won their last three games against the Lakers in LA. They have the athleticism to take advantage of Fisher at the 1 (Felton, Augustin) as well as the length to bother Kobe on the perimeter (GeraldWallace).

Why not: This is the last game of a 6-game road-trip for the Bobcats. LA should have an advantage if they pound the ball inside to Bynum and Gasol.

Lakers 99, Bobcats 97

Record ATS: 39-42-1

NCAA: Ole Miss/Kentucky

2010-02-02T18:25:00.000-08:00

Kentucky is one of the most talented teams in NCAA history:

John Wall: a 6'4 PG with Dwyane Wade type athletic ability. He is every bit as good as the hype; the ck #1 pick next year. Has incredible speed with the ball in his hand and the ability to get into the lane at will. Long wingspan and his use of floaters makes him unguardable 1-on-1 at this level. Has all the tools to be an All-NBA defensive player.
DeMarcus Cousins: 7'3 wingspan with quick feet and a solid base. Controls the interior of the paint w/rebounding and shot-blocking. Has some Zach Randolph in his game -- not prone to pass out of a double-team, but has great footwork and finishing ability. Definitely will have to watch his weight on the next level; more than once he didn't run back on defense and cherry-picked like he was playing pick-up basketball. NBA comparison: more athletic Al Jefferson.
Patrick Patterson: didn't have a great game but showcased an impressive array of offensive moves for an athletic 6'9 235 4: decent 3-pt range, mid-range floaters and solid post-up moves (including a nice up and under in the second half). Along w/Cousins and Orton, completely dominated the interior and the backboard. NBA comparison: Antwan Jamison (will need to convert his shots at a higher rate than in this game).
Eric Bledsoe: impressive athlete -- 40' vertical, long arms, fast, and strong upper body. Attacks basket and finishes very well for a 6' guard: he finished a tipped alley-oop by going around the basket in second half. The defensive stopper in the UK back-court; he made Chris Warren nearly invisible for most of the game. Should probably stay in school: he needs to work on his shot as well as prove he can run a team w/o Wall. NBA comparison: Kyle Lowry.
Daniel Orton: broad-shouldered big man with good ups and a long wingspan. He was too much to handle for Ole Miss on the interior, blocking shots and grabbing rebounds. Had a few strong moves on the block w/decent touch. He will be a first round pick eventually and a 10-year player in the NBA.
Darnell Dodson: the key to UK's chances in many ways. He is the designated shooter, and if he is hitting his threes (4-5 last night), they are nearly impossible to beat. At 6'7 with pretty good athleticism, he has an NBA future if he can keep knocking down open 3's.

Ole Miss has one legitimate NBA prospect:

Terrico White: an athletic 6'5 2 guard with a good outside stroke who can raise up and shoot over the top over most college defenders. Will need to become a defensive stopper to stay on the next level.
They have a few guards who excel in transition (Chris Warren and Eniel Polynice) but were exposed by UK's pressure D in the half-court.
Ole Miss is an NIT/bubble NCAA team that UK allowed to stay in the game b/c of how fast-paced it was. They thrive in the open-court where they can use their speed to get open shots but w/o any real big men they will be killed on the glass and stifled in the half-court against any top tier team.

So just how good is Kentucky? They can't be beaten in an uptempo AAU-type game. But despite their immense talent (three lottery picks, five first rounders, six NBA players), they are not invincible. Their aggressiveness can be their downfall on defense (gambling and reaching for steals) and offense (careless passes and hoisted up shots). The key to beating them: stay in a zone and make Bledsoe and Wall beat you from the outside and play disciplined half-court offensive basketball. If Kentucky runs into a team like Syracuse in the NCAA tourney, they could be in trouble.

Wagers: 2/2 NBA Games

2010-02-02T08:23:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Memphis (+10.5) at Cleveland

Why: Memphis is much more talented than Cleveland along the front-court with Randolph and Gasol. They have the size to match up with Shaq and an elite swing-man (Gay) to throw at LeBron. The Grizzlies already beat the Cavs in Memphis earlier this year.

Why not: Memphis just came off an emotional win against LA last night. They are flying across the country to play the team with the best record in the league.

Result: Cavs 105, Grizzlies 89

Prediction: Atlanta (+1) at OKC

Why: The Hawks have the athletes as well as superior overall depth to beat the Thunder in what is essentially a pick-em game. Horford should have a big night on the boards against OKC's weak 5 position.

Why not: Atlanta usually depends on being more athletic than the opposition, which won't be the case tonight against Durant, Westbrook and co.

Result: Thunder 106, Hawks 99

Record ATS: 37-42-1

Wagers: 1/31 NBA Games

2010-01-31T14:01:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Orlando (-5.5) at Detroit

Why: Detroit has no one who can handle Dwight Howard inside. They've also been playing terrible basketball as of late.

Why not: The Magic have not been a great road team all season. If the Pistons double Howard their shooters could go cold and make this a ball-game.

Result: Magic 91, Pistons 86

Prediction: Indiana (+8.5) at Toronto

Why: The Pacers have split the season-series with the Raptors so far this year. Granger had big games both time -- Turkoglu is a great match-up for him. Also they have the mobile bigs (Foster, Murphy) to guard Toronto's perimeter-oriented big men.

Why not: The Pacers did lose by 11 the last time they played in Toronto. They don't play much defense and the Raptors can really fill it up at times.

Result: Raptors 117, Pacers 102

Prediction: Phoenix (+3.5) at Houston

Why: The Suns big-men are too mobile and athletic for Hayes and Scola. The Suns have already beaten the Rockets by 6 and 8 this year.

Why not: Aaron Brooks could conceivably score 50 points if Nash were forced to guard him the entire game. No Barbosa either means no one on the Suns can guard quick 1's.

Result: Suns 115, Rockets 111 OT

Prediction: OKC (-450) over Golden State

Why: The Warriors undersized back-court should be overwhelmed by Westbrook, Sefolosha and Harden. Golden State doesn't play much defense up front either, which should mean big nights for Durant and Green. Oklahoma already beat them by 16 earlier this year.

Why not: Always dangerous to bet against Golden State who can shoot their way in and out of games against nearly every team in the league.

Result: Thunder 112, Warriors 104

Record ATS: 37-40-1

Money-line record: 1-0

Wagers: 1/29 NBA Games

2010-01-29T08:50:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Atlanta (-4) over Boston

Why: The Hawks are already 3-0 against the Celtics this year, and now Boston has to play a b2b after losing a heart-breaking game in Orlando the night before. The way KG was dragging his knee around last night, no way he stays with Josh Smith (who should be very motivated after not making the All-Star Game).

Why not: It's hard to be a talented team like Boston four times in a year, even if you match-up very well with them.

Result: Hawks 100, Celtics 91

Prediction: Memphis (+4) at San Antonio

Why: The Grizzlies are actually more talented than the Spurs -- shocking, but true. Marc Gasol should give Tim Duncan all he can handle while Zach Randolph will be going up against an undersized rookie in Blair. They are also way too athletic on the wings (Mayo, Gay) for the Spurs geriatric crew of perimeter players.

Why not: The Grizzlies one hole is at the point, especially on defense, so Tony Parker could have a big game. Also Blair's sturdy frame and long arms might give Randolph trouble in the paint.

Result: Spurs 104, Grizzlies 97

Prediction: Charlotte (-1.5) at Golden State

Why: The Bobcats are athletic enough to keep up with the Warriors and disciplined enough to handle Nellie-ball. Stephen Jackson aka "Captain Jack" could explode in his return to Oakland.

Why not: If any team knows how to defend Jackson, it's the Warriors. As he goes, so goes Charlotte's offense.

Result: Bobcats 121, Warriors 110

Prediction: Chicago (+4.5) at New Orleans

Why: The Bulls already handled the Hornets earlier this year in Chicago. They are similarly constructed teams built around an All-Star PG and athletic, defensively-oriented big men. The Bulls are just more talented.

Why not: Chicago is on the fifth-game of a seven-game road trip. If Chris Paul or James Posey can slow down Rose, the Bulls will have trouble scoring points.

Result: Bulls 108, Hornets 106

Record ATS: 36-38-1

Wagers: 1/28 NBA Games

2010-01-28T07:29:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Boston (+3.5) at Orlando

Why: The Celtics match-up very well with the Magic; they lost by 5 in a close game (http://nbaodds.blogspot.com/2009/11/1120-celticsmagic.html) and won on Christmas Day.

Why not: How healthy is KG's knee? Will he be able to run around the perimeter and contest Rashard Lewis' jump-shots?

Result: Magic 96, Celtics 94

Prediction: Dallas (+2) at Phoenix

Why: The Suns haven't won a TNT game in a few years for a simple reason -- their style of play (i.e. inability/refusal to play any D) results in top teams beating them. They also have not found anyone to guard Dirk since Shawn Marion left.

Why not: The Mavs have no one who can guard Amare; he traditionally destroys the Mavs older, slower front-court.

Result: Suns 112, Mavs 106

Record ATS: 33-36-1

Wagers: 1/27 NBA Games

2010-01-27T07:44:00.001-08:00

Prediction: Atlanta (+3.5) vs. San Antonio

Why: The Hawks are entirely too athletic for the Spurs. Athletic, perimeter-oriented big men like Josh Smith are the Spurs' Achilles heel. They just lost to a similarly constructed Bulls team in San Antonio a few nights ago.

Why not: Atlanta struggles against teams with big, low-post scorers like Tim Duncan. He should be too big and strong for their undersized front-court.

Result: Spurs 105, Hawks 90

Prediction: Memphis (-2) at Detroit

Why: The Pistons have no good post players; the Grizzlies have

two (Randolph and Gasol).

Why not: The Pistons have a lot of guys who can score from the PG position (Stuckey, Bynum).

Result: Grizzlies 99, Pistons 93

Record ATS: 32-35-1

NCAA: Syracuse/Georgetown

2010-01-25T17:44:00.000-08:00

Both teams featured potential lottery picks. Greg Monroe (Georgetown) and Wesley Johnson (Syracuse) played very unselfishly and didn't force the action; a must considering that each team spent the entire game sitting in a 2-3 zone.

Greg Monroe: a skilled big man with long arms who can play the high post. Showed some touch on his post moves but could improve his face-up jumper. His length and mobility allowed the Hoyas to play a very aggressive 2-3 zone. Showcased good individual post defense on Onuaku (the Cuse's massive African center). His best skill is his phenomenal passing ability -- he was firing bullets through the zone all night. Not a natural #1 option which might hurt his draft-stock. If he falls to #23 (like he is on DraftExpress), he will be the steal of the draft. NBA comparison: Pau Gasol/Brad Miller.
Wesley Johnson: a knock-down shooter with a smooth stroke. His length and quickness allows him to get off his shot against anyone; also has a great face-up/pull-up element on his jumper. Has the explosiveness to attack the rim; he powered the ball through Monroe in the second half. Better as an off-the-ball finisher than a shot-creator for others. Has all the tools to be a great defender in the NBA one day. NBA comparison: a more talented Trevor Ariza.

Georgetown has a thin roster and depends almost entirely on their starters. This becomes a huge issue when one of them gets into foul trouble -- Monroe's foul trouble in the second half effectively ended the game.

Austin Freeman: dead-eye shooter with NBA 3-point range. Drove well inside but couldn't finish against the Orange's length. Needs to develop a floater to play on the next level.
Chris Wright: showed the ability to drive and shoot but was fairly quiet for most of the game.
Jason Clark: spotted up around the perimeter for most of the game. Another good shooter.
Julian Vaughn: the Hoyas other big man; showed some nice touch in the post and decent athleticism.

The rest of the Orange are role players, but they execute those roles very well. A well-coached team.

Andy Rautins: a very aggressive defender who uses his length to create turnovers off the zone. Plays with a lot of swag and has a very good outside shot. His ability to guard 1-on-1 will determine whether he makes it to the NBA.
Scoop Jardine: an explosive scorer off the bench; he can shoot it from the outside and get into the lane.
Kris Joseph: another long, athletic Orange defender. Cuts to the basket hard; a good energy big man off the bench.
Rick Jackson: a big, athletic forward who plays the zone very well.
Arinze Onuaku: an imposing force along the back-line who finishes strong in the paint. A strong rebounder but has absolutely no touch. When Monroe made him shoot over the top, he literally slung it off the top of the cylinder.
Brandon Trische: another athletic 6'4 guard. Him and Rautins length up front makes it very difficult to initiate offense against Syracuse.

Big Picture:

Georgetown is an extremely talented team that surrounds two shot-creators (Monroe and Freeman) with a bunch of athletic shooters. They could make a dark-horse run at the Final 4, but if Monroe or Freeman gets into foul trouble, they could lose in the first round.
Syracuse has a fearsome zone -- their guards are both 6'4 while their forwards are all 6'7 and up and extremely athletic. They play it very aggressively and cause a lot of turnovers; their defense powers their offense for the most part. However Georgetown did get out to a 14-0 run on them; the blue-print to beat a zone is simple: passing big man + knock-down shooters. At some point the Orange will run into a top team who has that and they will need to win with their offense. Can Wesley Johnson average 25-30 pts in the NCAA Tourney? To win it all, he will have to.

Wager: Cavs at Heat

2010-01-25T08:27:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Cleveland (-1) at Miami

Why: This is a pick-em spread between the team with the best record in the NBA against a team with a point differential barely above zero. LeBron alone should be enough to beat Miami.

Why not: Mo Williams is out and Wade should give the Cavs almost as many problems as LeBron does to the Heat.

Result: Cavs 92, Heat 91

Record ATS: 31-34-1

Wagers: 1/22 NBA Games

2010-01-22T08:35:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Memphis (-3.5) over Oklahoma City

Why: The Thunder's main weakness is an inability to guard post-up scorers: Marc Gasol and Randolph are two of the best in the league.

Why not: Green's perimeter shooting will present problems for Randolph; Westbrook should have his way with whoever is guarding him.

Result: Grizzlies 86, Thunder 84

Prediction: Phoenix (-6.5) over Chicago

Why: The Bulls have had problems scoring all season; they are not a very explosive offensive team. This will be a problem playing in Phoenix, where the Suns turn every game into a track meet.

Why not: Chicago is one of the few teams with a front-court (Noah and Thomas) athletic enough to keep up with Phoenix. No one in the Suns back-court can guard Derrick Rose either.

Result: Bulls 115, Suns 104

Record ATS: 31-34-0

Wager: Lakers at Cavs

2010-01-20T20:48:00.000-08:00

Prediction: LA Lakers (+3.5) at Cleveland

Why: The Lakers match-up well with Cleveland and should be motivated after their embarrassing performance on Christmas Day.

Why not: Never easy to bet against LeBron on national TV; if Shaq has anything left, this is the game he would show it.

Result: Cavs 93, Lakers 87

Record ATS: 31-32-0

NCAA: UNC/Wake Forest

2010-01-20T17:36:00.000-08:00

Notable Wake players:

Al-Aminu: very athletic 6'9 frame with long arms. An excellent rebounder (terrorized UNC on the offensive glass in second half -- two dunks) who can block shots. Fairly raw on offense; can't shoot or post reliably. Not a #1 option, he is better off the ball. Does have a good handle/drive-game for a 6'9 guy. NBA comparison: Josh Smith.
Ish Smith: super-fast PG; could be an instant offense JJ Barea type energizer in the NBA. Runs the fast break and handles the team well. Will need to either shoot or defend to stay on the next level.
Ari Stewart: very impressive 6'7 shooter. He has crazy range on his shot.
CJ Harris: another really good freshman shooter; him and Williams can space the floor very well.
Tony Woods: Very athletic 6'11 post; finishes well in the lane. Guy to watch in the future when Al-Aminu leaves.

Notable UNC players:

Deon Thompson: reminds me of JJ Hickson. Very skilled and smart 6'8 4 with good winsgpan and solid athleticism. Will find a place in the NBA.
Travis Wear: showed the ability to shoot, finish in the lane and bounce off the floor.
Dexter Strickland: has unreal speed and quickness. He plays with great swag; Larry Drew's job (he went 3-8 with 4 turnovers) should not be safe. A good passer -- had an excellent entry pass to Thompson and a few nice fast breaks. Gets down and defends well at 6'3. A big-time NBA prospect down the road.
Leslie McDonald: a good young, athletic shooter.

Big-picture:

UNC looked out of sorts on offense without Ed Davis. They didn't have a #1 option and spent a lot of possessions aimlessly. Their big problem is a lack of difference makers on the perimeter; they are starting three "guys" right now. Strickland and McDonald should be emphasized at the expense of Drew and Graves.
Wake is a solid athletic team who can rebound, shoot and defend. They could beat a top 15 team but they could also lose in an upset to the tourney since they don't have a true #1 option, especially against a team who controls the tempo and makes Smith and Al-Aminu score in the half-court.

Wagers: 1/20 NBA Games

2010-01-20T09:30:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Utah (+6.5) at San Antonio

Why: There's a reason the Jazz have already beaten the Spurs three times this season. The Spurs cannot guard perimeter big men and the Jazz have two (Okur and Boozer). Okur also plays surprisingly good post D due to his size and strength and will make Duncan work for his points. The Spurs also have no one who can guard Deron Williams.

Why not: The Spurs are possibly the hottest team in the NBA right now. Parker should be as much a problem for Williams as Williams is for Parker. Also possible dumb luck/emotion will be a factor -- hard to beat a good team 4 times in one year, even if match-ups are in your favor.

Result: Jazz 105, Spurs 98

Prediction: Phoenix (-12.5) over New Jersey

Why: The Nets are 1-20 on the road and won't be able to match-up talent wise with the Suns in the open court.

Why not: 12.5 is a big spread, and the Suns certainly won't be playing much D on Harris (Nash guarding) or Lopez (Amare or Frye guarding).

Result: Suns 118, Nets 94

Prediction: Indiana (+11.5) at Orlando

Why: The Pacers have already covered twice against the Magic this year; they match up very well with Orlando. They have a monstrous 7'2 center (Hibbert) who doesn't allow Howard to get good post position as well as a prototype stretch 4 in Murphy. Orlando has been playing their worst ball of the season over the last few weeks.

Why not: The Magic are still a much more talented team and there is no way they take Indiana for granted after losing to them a few weeks ago.

Result: Magic 109, Pacers 98

Record ATS: 31-31-0

Wager: Raptors at Cavs

2010-01-19T11:43:00.001-08:00

Prediction: Toronto (+10) at Cleveland

Why: None of the Cavs big men can guard Bargnani or Bosh on the perimeter. The Raptors already beat them by 10 points this season.

Why not: The Raptors don't have a chance at guarding LeBron. None.

Result: Cavs 108, Raptors 100

Record ATS: 28-31-0

Wager: Suns at Hawks

2010-01-15T08:37:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Atlanta (-5) vs. Phoenix

Why: The Suns up-tempo style plays right into the Hawks' strengths. Atlanta plays defense and Phoenix does not. In crunch-time, when the Hawks go Crawford/Johnson in the back-court, who does Steve Nash guard?

Why not: The Suns could get hot from the three-point line and bomb Atlanta out of the game.

Result: Hawks 102, Suns 101

Record ATS: 27-31-0

NBA: Jazz/Cavs

2010-01-14T21:23:00.000-08:00

A quick look at LeBron's "supporting cast":

It's amazing how little an impact Shaq had on this game. He couldn't establish solid post position on any of the Jazz big-men; he had two offensive fouls trying to dislodge Okur in the post. His P/R defense is terrible; the Jazz involved him in four. The results: weak-side dunk to AK47, open jump shot for Boozer, Boozer misses 5-foot floater, Williams fouled by Shaq.
Mo Williams really struggles with bigger 1's like Deron Williams. He doesn't have elite athleticism or handles, so he struggles to get his shot off when pressured.
Delonte West was a better fit against Utah: he can do everything Mo can at 6'3.
Ilgauskas is a completely one-dimensional player; he has lost all semblance of a post game. He dribbled it awkwardly off his foot as he was posting up the 6'7 Millsap.
Hickson is a good role playing 4 -- wingspan allows him to finish and defend the paint. He can also step out and hit a 15-20 foot jumper.
Varejao is an offensive liability: he walked twice off after two beautiful feeds from LeBron on the P/R. When he tried to create offense in the second half, he was stripped and got his shot blocked.
Jawad Williams has a nice touch for a 6'9 athletic wing; showed off an effortless stroke from the FT line. Made two nice drives to the basket towards the end of the fourth quarter when the Jazz were over-committing to his shot.

Before the game picked up at the end of the fourth quarter, it was a hideous defensive struggle where both teams' weaknesses on offense were exposed:

When a team can play good individual defense on LeBron (prevent him from scoring easy baskets w/o double-teaming him), the rest of the Cavs offense disintegrates -- see the third quarter when they went 7 minutes w/o a basket. AK and Brewer have a good combination of length and athleticism to frustrate him; they did one of the best defensive jobs on LeBron all season. The turning point in the game was when Sloan had to put Wesley Matthews and CJ Miles on LeBron towards the end of the fourth.
The Jazz have a very one-dimensional offense: no one posts up or drives the lane. It's a jump-shooting team that will be exposed against a good D like Cleveland. Given their lack of defensive ability in the front-court, I don't see Utah making the play-offs in the West.

Wager: Bulls at Celtics

2010-01-14T12:01:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Chicago (+6.5) at Boston

Why: Last year's playoffs showed that a KG-less Celtics and the Bulls are a toss-up. The Bulls have a really athletic front-line that should bother the Celtics older greyhounds (Pierce and Wallace particularly). Boston also played in New Jersey last night; never a good sign for an older team.

Why not: The Bulls have had trouble scoring all year. Rondo, with his quick feet and long arms, is a great defensive match-up for Rose.

Result: Bulls 96, Celtics 83

Record ATS: 27-30-0

Wagers: 1/13 NBA Games

2010-01-13T10:58:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Atlanta (-11) vs. Washington

Why: The Hawks seem to have regained their swag after beating Boston twice in four days last week. Phillips Arena is one of the toughest places to play in the league this season; the Hawks have absolutely destroyed weaker competition there. The Wizards also played last night in Detroit and are playing a rested Hawks team on a b2b.

Why not: The Wizards still have a talented starting 5 w/o Arenas and 11 points is a pretty high spread.

Result: Hawks 94, Wizards 82

Prediction: Phoenix (-4) at Indiana

Why: The Pacers fast-tempo style should play right into the Suns hands considering they don't have nearly the front-court talent that Phoenix does.

Why not: Granger is a top-15 player who could have a great night against the Suns "defense" while Foster is a solid defensive big man who could give Amare trouble.

Result: Pacers 122, Suns 114

Prediction: OKC (-1.5) vs. San Antonio

Why: The Spurs are playing a b2b after an emotional win against the Lakers. They have also traditionally struggled with perimeter big men like Jeff Green and have no one to defend Durant.

Why not: I was really surprised to see San Antonio win last night; I had discounted their current win streak as a mirage since it was entirely against teams below .500 before last night. If they can beat the Thunder tonight, I might have to re-evaluate the Spurs.

Result: Spurs 109, Thunder 108 (OT)

Record ATS: 26-30-0

Wager: Lakers at Spurs

2010-01-12T08:42:00.000-08:00

Prediction: LA Lakers (+3) at San Antonio

Why: The Spurs recent success has mostly been a product of playing below .500 teams; they haven't been a team with a winning record since November. This is primarily b/c they have no answer for perimeter-big men, which most elite teams have. Who guards Lamar Odom? Dejuan Blair or Tim Duncan?

Why not: The Lakers are in the midst of a 3-game road losing streak. Their only flaw -- an inability to guard speedy points (see: Fisher, Derek) -- should be exploited by Tony Parker. Kobe's injured finger is clearly bothering him; hopefully he cuts back on the contested fade-away jumpers.

Result: Spurs 105, Lakers 85

Record ATS: 25-28-0

NCAA: Kansas/Tennessee

2010-01-11T18:26:00.000-08:00

Kansas players:

Sherron Collins: a small, stumpy PG who plays like a RB. He can muscle into the lane and shoot a floater as well as shoot 3's. However he's about 5'10 and he really struggled with the length of Tennessee's zone -- Kansas was often forced to initiate offense 30 feet from the basket.
Cole Aldrich: Very fundamentally sound big man. His biggest asset is his monstrous wingspan which allows him to clog the paint as well as finish easily. He needs more touches in the paint; Tennessee smartly played zone to get the ball out of his hands. Plays with a real mean streak. NBA comparison: Joel Pryzbilla w/more offensive skills.
Xavier Henry: An impressive-looking 6'6 athlete with a great stroke. He did not play aggressively at all in the game; it was a bit strange (he should be taking more than 7 shots a game; he certainly had more than enough opportunities too).
Tyshawn Taylor: A role player on this team, but shows flashes of greatness. Can knock down the open 3 as well as finish in the lane; we'll know more about him when the Jayhawks' top 3 players are gone next year.
Marcus Morris: Can space the floor for Aldrich; good 5th option.

Tennessee players:

Wayne Chism: A 6'9 big man who can spread the floor and guarded Aldrich straight up on more than one occasion. Can't create his own shot or post up too much, but he has two skills (height and 3-pt shooting ability) that translate well to the next level. I'm very surprised he's ranked so poorly (#71 senior on DraftExpress) on the mock drafts.
Scotty Hopson: A 6'7 slasher who is the Volunteers' biggest threat on offense. Long and athletic; he dunked all over Aldrich in the middle of the second half.
Renaldo Woolridge: an athletic 6'8 stretch post who can hit the three. Son of former NBA player Orlando Woolridge.
J.P Prince: A 6'7 athletic wing who has a deceptive left-handed shot in the lane. Tayshaun's cousin.
Kenny Hall: A promising 6'8 freshman who (like seemingly all of the Volunteer big men) is long, athletic and can stretch the floor.

Big Picture:

Tennessee had an excellent game-plan and were able to beat the Jayhawks without any player who could consistently get off his own shot. They are an incredibly long and athletic team, and the Jayhawks struggled with passing through their zone. They also have 3 stretch post players (Chism, Woolridge and Hall) which is murder on traditional posts like Aldrich in the open court.
Kansas is an extremely talented team; all 5 of their starters are offensive threats. Tennessee was able to neutralize Aldrich in the post by playing zone, while Henry took himself out of the game and played incredibly passively on offense. As a result they had to depend on Sherron Collins to create offense against the length of Tennessee.

Wagers: 1/11 NBA Games

2010-01-11T09:39:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Thunder (-5) over Knicks

Why: The Knicks should have a lot of problems guarding Durant and Westbrook. Their length and athleticism will also cause problems for the Knicks three-point shooters.

Why not: The Knicks are a very inconsistent team since their game-plan relies on firing up three's willy-nilly; you never know what team will show up.

Result: Thunder 106, Knicks 88

Prediction: Jazz (-7.5) over Heat

Why: Miami lost to the Clippers last night and have to travel to Utah to one of the toughest places to play a b2b in the league (Jazz are 13-6 at home compared to 7-11 on the road). The Heat's PG position is one of their weakest (they were forced to pick Alston off waivers last week) while Haslem is the only big who can guard Boozer or Okur.

Why not: The Heat have already beaten the Jazz once this year in Miami, and 7.5 is a lot of points for two teams who appeared evenly matched the last time they play. Also no shot-blocking to deter Wade from scoring in the paint.

Report: Jazz 118, Heat 89

Record ATS: 25-27-0

Tony Romo and "Clutch Ability"

2010-01-10T22:06:00.000-08:00

A quote from Tony Romo after the Cowboys first play-off victory in 14 years, and whether or not he feels like he proved something to his critics:

"It didn't feel like that to me, maybe because I've only been playing for four years now," he said after the game. "But we played two of them before, and I felt like one of them was my fault, so it didn't feel like this was the most impossible thing ever that everyone made it out to be. The other thing is, if you're good enough, you'll win. If I wasn't good enough to win a playoff game as a quarterback, then I wouldn't have."

He is basically saying that he is a good QB so he wasn't worried that he would play poorly in the play-offs. It's such an obvious statement, yet people refuse to believe it. There is way too much of an emphasis on mental toughness on sports and not on overall ability.

Romo was the same great QB he was before this game than he was after, in the same way that Kobe was the same player he was against Boston than he was against Orlando. Kobe didn't simply discover how "to make his teammates better through indomitable will to win" he simply got better play from his teammates because they matched up better with the Magic than they did the Celtics.

Sports fans, and the guys on ESPN in particular, place far to much emphasis on the intangible statistics (has this guy learned his lesson? will the young team overcome their playoff miscues?) than the tangible ones (how does the pass rush measure up? who controls the interior of the offensive line? etc). Those are the ones that decide the game but you rarely if ever see that being talked about.

I think this holds true especially when people talk about "leadership". The only off-the-court thing a leader needs to do is work hard; that way he is providing a model for the rest of the players. But as a former basketball player myself, I never found the personality of the team's best player to matter too much. Tim Duncan and KG have almost polar opposite personalities, yet they have had the same effect on their teams for over a decade. What matters is what they do on the court (demand double-teams and pass the ball; protect the rim and rotate on defense) not who they are as people (is Tim Duncan too reserved? is KG too angry to win it all?). Basically if you're analyzing a game based on story-lines and narratives, you're probably not doing a very good job.

Wager: Thunder/Pacers

2010-01-09T12:40:00.001-08:00

Prediction: OKC (-8.5) over Indiana

Why: The Thunder are quickly rounding into shape as a legit playoff team in the West. They should have too much fire-power for a short-handed Pacers squad (without Granger) who played last night in Minnesota.

Why not: The Thunder's main weakness -- lack of bulk and size on the front-line -- could be exploited by Roy Hibbert, who had a career game against Dwight Howard last week.

Result: Thunder 108, Pacers 102

Record ATS: 23-27-0

Book Review: Bill Simmons' "The Book of Basketball"

2010-01-08T22:47:00.001-08:00

Bill Simmons' "The Book of Basketball" is a mammoth 800 page opus meant to cover the history of the NBA. His goal -- a complete and definitive guide to who mattered and why they did over the first 60 years of the NBA. He emphasized two points in analyzing the legacy of the league's greatest players and teams: how much of it is due to factors outside of the individual's control (teammates, time period etc) and whether the player understood the key to winning -- what he calls "The Secret".

"The Secret" is the understanding that playing unselfish basketball is the best way to win a championship. His main example is Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Russell; they were the two greatest players of the NBA's first decades and their teams battled for control of the league throughout the 1960's. Chamberlain racked up the stats (most famously 100 points a game and 20,000 women) while Russell racked up titles (11 in 13 years). For Simmons, Russel's grasp of "The Secret" is what contributed to his greater number of titles and therefore makes him a better player than Chamberlain, despite the latter's superior statistical achievement.

One obvious objection to "The Secret" is the level of teammates around the superstar: isn't it easier to be unselfish when you can trust your teammates to pull their own weight? Simmons finished the book in April of '09 (before the '09 playoffs) with the clear assumption that b/c LeBron had embraced "The Secret" the Cavs were going to win the title that year. Of course, the Orlando Magic's front-court exposed the Cavs big men and they were eliminated despite by a heroic performance by LeBron.

But does LeBron's inability to get his team to the Finals reflect poorly on his career? In my mind it does not, b/c basketball is a team game. While the best players seem to win the title more often than not (Jordan/Hakeem/Shaq/Duncan accounted for every title but one between '91-'07), that's b/c it's easier to build a great team around a superstar not b/c they're playing 1-on-1 for the Lord of the Rings conch or something.

Therefore exactly how much should team success reflect on a player's legacy? The climax of the book is Simmons re-invention of the Basketball HOF -- ranking the top 96 players of all-time on five different tiers. The question becomes is he ranking the players games or their career accomplishments? There is a difference.

Often, Simmons will point out that a player's situation (i.e. Worthy being the third option on the Showtime Lakers instead of the man on a play-off team) influenced people's (and his) historical perception of them. Team success is the whole point and of the basketball and a lot of the things that go into that (embracing "the Secret", playing help-side D etc) are notoriously hard to calculate. But we shouldn't just give up and decide these things are intangible, we should work on making them tangible.

My Pyramid would rank the impact players had on the game. Namely, if were doing a fantasy draft for an all-time NBA team, what should be the order of the picks? And I want LeBron on my team because (and not inspite of) his performance against Orlando in last-season's ECF; there is only one so much any one player can do, even if they have embraced "the Secret".

Wagers: 1/7 NBA Games

2010-01-08T04:43:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Atlanta (-3) over Boston

Why: The Hawks' athleticism has matched up very well with the Celtics older team over the last few years. With Pierce hurt and KG out, the Celtics are going to have a tough time scoring points against Atlanta. Their OT win two nights ago in Miami surely drained their energy as well.

Why not: The Hawks' went through the worst part of their schedule after losing four games (including a humiliating defeat by the Heat) in the last two weeks. Are they are who we thought they were over the first two months of the season or has their inability to execute in the half-court been exposed?

Result: Hawks 93, Celtics 85

Prediction: Dallas (+4) at San Antonio

Why: The Spurs starting big men are Tim Duncan and DeJuan Blair. Neither one of them has a prayer of stopping or even bothering Dirk Nowitzki on the perimeter.

Why not: Dirk has gone through a semi-slump ever since Carl Landry's teeth got stuck in his elbow. The Spurs offense is beginning to get rolling and will test the Mavs defense, especially in the post (Duncan) and at the PG position (Parker).

Results: Mavs 112, Spurs 103

Prediction: Sacramento (+3.5) at Golden State

Why: The Kings play the same up-tempo style as the Warriors, except they are a much more talented team. There is no one on their starting roster whom Curry or Ellis can guard; if they match up against the 6'6 Tyreke Evans they are in trouble. The Kings also have two mobile and skilled big men (Hawes and Thompson) who should have no trouble with the Warriors front-line.

Why not: It's always dangerous to bet against Golden State, especially at home against a team not known for its defensive prowess. The Warriors could get hot at any moment.

Result: Warriors 108, Kings 101

Prediction: Phoenix (-6.5) over Miami

Why: Phoenix is one of the toughest places in the league to play, with the Suns sporting a 14-3 record at home. They just run lesser-talented teams like the Heat out of the gym. There is only one big man on the Heat (Haslem) with a chance to match-up against Frye and Stoudemire.

Why not: Dwyane Wade should have a field-day against whoever tries to guard him on the perimeter and there is no on inside to contest his shots either.

Result: Heat 109, Suns 105

Record ATS: 23-26-0

NBA: Suns/Kings

2010-01-05T19:18:00.000-08:00

The Sacramento Kings have a very promising future. They are one of the longest and most athletic teams in the league -- an Atlanta Hawks East. Their starting five goes 6'6, 6'8, 6'11, 6'10, 7. They get a lot of rebounds and contest a lot of shots with their length.

I can see why the Kings want to keep Tyreke Evans at the PG position. He's fast and long enough (6'11) wingspan that he could be an All-Defense player one day: in the fourth quarter, he stole the ball from Nash, blocked his shot and took a charge from Amare. On offense, opposing point guards have absolutely no chance of stopping him due to his Dwyane Wade-like reach and ability to control himself in the air. He is an absolute freight-train in the open court and the most impressive rookie (narrowly over Jennings) that I have seen play this year.
Omri Casspi is an impressive young player as well. At 6'8 he can play solid defense on multiple positions as well as stretch the court with his three-point shooting ability -- he had a cold-blooded step-back 3 with 5:30 left in the fourth quarter. A mix of Shawn Marion and Andres Nocioni.
Donte Greene is a huge presence at 6'11 who can get rebounds, push the break and spot up for 3's.
Jason Thompson is a very smooth and athletic 4. Him and Evans are vicious on the P/R.
Spencer Hawes has a lot of touch around the basket. He is a very skilled big man and an effective rebounder -- a good comparison is to the man he ultimately replaced in Sacramento (Brad Miller).
They have a few serviceable bench players, most notably Beno Udrih (a knock-down shooter who developed a step-back jumper) who became their go-to guy in the fourth. However the rest of their veteran players in the rotation (Kenny Thomas and Ime Udoka) seem washed-up and contributed little, allowing the Suns to make a huge run to blow the game open in the second quarter.

They don't play much defense, which is understandable due to their age and the fast-paced tempo of their game. They make a lot of mental mistakes (I counted three careless passes in the back-court that led to Suns' baskets) that can be attributed to youth.

The Suns have no such excuse. The way they play is entertaining, and their judicious use of the fast-break to get open 3's (Jared Dudley is leading the league in 3 pt. percentage) makes them a dangerous team. But their lack of D will doom them at some point in the play-offs. When they are not scoring (as they were for a stretch in the fourth when Nash, Richardson and Amare were on the bench) they are still giving up points. This allowed the Kings to make up a 12-point deficit very quickly.

Steve Nash is phenomenal on offense (he might be the most clutch free-throw shooter in the NBA), but he is just as phenomenally bad on defense. Through most parts of the game, there was no one for him to guard on the floor for the Kings. When Evans started posting him up and bullying him in the lane, it was just unfair.
Amare had a big blocked shot against Evans in the fourth; he has a 7'6 wingspan, there is no reason he can't do that more consistently. It's hardly a good indicator for his future motivation when that is his effort level in his walk-year.

Wagers: 1/5 NBA Games

2010-01-05T15:08:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Milwaukee (-1.5) at New Jersey

Why: The Bucks are a legit playoff team in the East; the line for them against an opponent like the Nets should be much higher.

Why not: Harris and Lopez match-up fairly well with the Bucks two difference-makers (Jennings and Bogut).

Result: Bucks 98, Nets 76

Prediction: Memphis (+1) at Portland

Why: The Grizzlies big front-line (Gasol and Randolph) should pound the Blazers injury-depleted big men. Portland is playing on the second night of a b2b after going up against the Clippers last night.

Why not: Memphis is still a much better team at home than on the road while Portland is very dangerous to bet on considering how thin they are -- they have become one of the most inconsistent teams in the league. Also Roy should have his way with Memphis' D.

Result: Grizzlies 109, Blazers 105

Prediction: Houston (+7.5) at LA Lakers

Why: The Rockets are the best match-up in the league against the Lakers -- see them taking LA to seven last year even after Yao went down. Brooks tears up Fisher, while Ariza and Battier can guard Kobe well and Chuck Hayes is very effective against Gasol.

Why not: The Lakers seem to recognize this and always come out strong against the Rockets. Also Bynum is stronger and plays deeper post position than Gasol (who is injured) so Hayes and Scola might not be as effective on him.

Result: Lakers 88, Rockets 79

Record ATS: 21-24-0

Behind the Bets: The Eastern Elite

2010-01-04T06:15:00.000-08:00

While there is only one elite team in the West (the Lakers), the East has four teams with a point differential of over 6 (the Magic are at +5.8) with the rest of the conference is in the negative range. None of the four have clearly differentiated themselves; which is what will make the East playoffs so interesting.

How I would break down potential playoff match-ups:

Atlanta:

Best match-up: Boston. The Hawks front-court (Smith, Horford) is way too athletic for the Celtics elderly unit. Ray Allen would have to guard Joe Johnson, while they have a long and athletic 6'9 forward (Marvin Williams) to throw at Paul Pierce. They've already beaten the Celtics twice this year, and memorably took them to 7 two years ago when the Hawks had 37 wins and the Celtics had 66.
Even match-up: Cleveland. A playoff series between these two squads would more closely resemble the nail-biter in the Q than the blow-out at Phillips Arena or last year's playoffs. The Cavs big front-line can control tempo while Delonte West always does a good job on Joe Johnson. But the Hawks have significantly improved at the 4 (Josh Smith should be too athletic for any of the Cavs big men) and 1 (when Jamal Crawford replaces Bibby and improves their perimeter D).
Worst match-up: Orlando. Dwight Howard is too big and too powerful for the Hawks undersized front-line. His rebounding also allows the Magic to control the tempo and keep Atlanta in the half-court.

Boston:

Best match-up: Orlando. The Celtics have the perfect defenders for Howard (Perkins and Wallace) and Lewis (Rasheed); this completely changes the flow of the Orlando offense. As a result, Vince has to be involved in a much larger portion of the offense than the Magic are comfortable with. They took the Magic to 7 games last year w/o KG.
Bad match-up: Cleveland. KG and Ray Allen have become spot-up shooters as they have aged. As a result, Paul Pierce is the only Celtic who can consistently get his own shot these days. So when they play a team with a super-athletic 3 (like LeBron) and make Pierce work for his points, the Celtics offense isn't nearly as effective.
Worst match-up: Atlanta.

Cleveland:

Best match-up: Boston.
Even match-up: Atlanta.
Worst match-up: Orlando. Everyone saw the Conference Finals last year. And while Shaq is a better match-up for Howard than Big Z; they still haven't addressed the hole at the perimeter 4 which Rashard Lewis exploited.

Orlando:

Best match-up: Atlanta.
Good match-up: Cleveland.
Worst match-up: Boston.

From the match-ups, it looks like Orlando is the favorite in the East. But if they lose to the Celtics it leaves the door open for either the Hawks or the Cavs to make a dark-horse run to the Finals.

If the play-offs started today (with 1-4 going Cleveland, Orlando, Boston, Atlanta), the Celtics would take out the Magic and the winner of Cavs/Hawks would advance to the Finals. I'd take the Cavs since they'd have home-court. However with only 1.5 games separating the top 3 teams, the standings should be pretty fluid. The main wild-card is injuries: namely can Nelson come back and integrate with Carter in the back-court? And how far back will KG be come play-off time?

Wagers: 1/4 NBA Games

2010-01-04T01:22:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Atlanta (-1.5) at Miami

Why: The Hawks are being under-valued b/c of the three-game skid they're on. But they lost to a dangerous Knicks team in OT w/Robinson just going off and in the last minute at Cleveland. They're still an elite team who should be getting a lot more points against a mediocre squad like Miami.

Why not: If Robinson could get 41 from the two-guard position, Wade could be trouble. In last-year's playoffs, he was dominant at home but not at Atlanta.

What happened: Heat 92, Hawks 75

Prediction: OKC (+2) at Chicago

Why: The Thunder are a legit playoff team in the West. Westbrook is one of the only PG's in the league who can match-up with Rose athletically. Durant has been on an absolute tear lately; Mbah a Moute is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league and he looked absolutely foolish against Durant the other day.

Why not: The Thunder's only weak spot is at 5; Noah could have a big game on the boards.

What happened: Thunder 98, Bulls 85

Record ATS: 19-23

Wagers: 12/30 NBA Games

2009-12-29T23:40:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Utah (-7) at Minnesota

Why: The Wolves are playing a b2b after losing at San Antonio last night. The Jazz are murder on traditional posts like Jefferson and Love since Okur can guard them straight up on defense and take them out to the three-point line on offense. Deron Williams should have his way with whoever guards him.

Why not: B/c they are a primarily jump-shooting team, the Jazz are not very consistent on the road.

What happened: Jazz 107, Wolves 103

Prediction: Phoenix (-2) over Boston

Why: The Suns are red-hot at home (beating the Lakers a few nights ago) while the Celtics are on the last-game of a brutal West-Coast road trip. The Suns match-up very well with them (having already beaten them once in Boston); they are a super-athletic team with perimeter big men who can get the Celtics' older (KG) and more traditional (Perkins) bigs out of their comfort zone.

Why not: The Celtics have lost two straight road games and an elite team of their caliber won't want to drop three in a row.

What happened: Suns 116, Celtics 98

Prediction: Sacramento (-2) over Philly

Why: The Kings are a great value bet, especially at home where they are 11-5. The Sixers are talented, but they haven't meshed at all on the court. They are in the middle of a tough 6-game Western road trip.

Why not: On paper, Philly is a better team, as evidenced by them beating Portland by 11 the other night.

What happened: Sixers 116, Kings 106

Record ATS: 18-22-0

12/26 NBA Wagers

2009-12-25T20:01:00.001-08:00

Prediction: Atlanta (-7) at Indiana

Why: The Hawks have been one of the most consistent teams in the league. They have the second highest point differential in the NBA (+7.9) behind only the Celtics. The Pacers up-and-down style plays right into their hands; they should overwhelm Indiana through overwhelming talent and athleticism.

Why not: The Pacers have a big front-court (Hibbert and Murphy) and will need to pound the Hawks inside.

What happened: Atlanta 110, Indiana 98

Prediction: New Orleans (+1) at Chicago

Why: With the coaching change and the addition of rookies Thornton and Collison to the rotation, New Orleans has regained some of their swag from the last few years. With the way Bulls have been playing lately, the Hornets should have no problem covering basically a pick-em (+1) spread.

Why not: In theory, Derrick Rose (at 6'3 190) is one of the best match-ups for CP3 in the league on both offense and defense. If he can play up to the potential he showed against the Celtics last year, he could make this game interesting.

What happened: Chicago 96, New Orleans 85

Record ATS: 17-20-0

Wager: Christmas Day Game

2009-12-25T04:18:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Lakers (-6) over Cavs

Why: The Cavs don't match-up with the Lakers front-line (Bynum, Gasol and Odom); Shaq (in his old age) doesn't really change that. Ron Artest is one of the best defenders on LeBron in the league (see how successful the Rockets were last year against the Cavs) b/c of his physical strength, while no one on the Cavs roster really matches up well with Kobe besides LeBron.

Why not: Will Shaq find the re-juvenation machine on the NBA's biggest stage? Will Mike Brown give LeBron serious minutes at the 4 when Odom is in the game and let the Cavs go small? If the Cavs utilize the correct line-ups, they could make this game a lot closer than I'm projecting.

What happened: Cleveland 102, LA 87

Take-away: The Lakers laid an absolute egg in an embarrassing performance with the whole world watching. I'm wary of taking them on large lines specifically b/c they don't take games seriously and they rely on their talent to get them out of jams.

Record ATS: 16-19-0

12/23 NBA Wagers

2009-12-23T04:03:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Orlando (-8.5) over Houston

Why: The Rockets are facing a difficult b2b, travelling across the country to play the Magic at 6:00 Eastern. Their dramatically undersized front-line, without Yao Ming, will have trouble containing Howard in the post and Lewis at the 3-pt. line.

Why not: The Rockets are a tough, scrappy team that won't roll over for Orlando, who have a tendency of not taking worse teams serious enough and therefore not covering. Aaron Brooks should have his way with whatever PG (Jason Williams or Anthony Johnson) filling in for Jameer Nelson.

What happened: Orlando 102, Houston 87

Prediction: Sacramento (+6) over Cleveland

Why: The Kings, especially at home, seem like one of the great value bets in the NBA right now. The Cavs have no answer for Jason Thompson, a 6'11 athletic forward with a post game, on their roster right now. They are also coming off a big win against Phoenix (Shaq's old team) on Monday and a Christmas Day match-up with the Lakers, making this a classic trap game.

Why not: The Cavs still have LeBron, who should have his way with the Kings defense. They are still a top 5/6 NBA team not to be taken lightly. If they can tighten up their D, they could make life quite difficult for a young and inconsistent Kings team.

What happened: Cleveland 117, Sacramento 104 (OT)

Record ATS: 16-18-0

NCAA: Texas/Michigan State

2009-12-22T17:11:00.001-08:00

A quick look at the Texas roster:

Avery Bradley: deserves all the hype he got as ESPN's #1 prospect coming out of high school. At 6'2 with a 6'10 wingspan, he has the offense of Devin Harris and the defense of Shawn Marion. He can comfortably guard any perimeter player in college and should be able to an All-Defense type player at either guard position in the NBA. He has top-end Tony Parker/Ty Lawson speed; he is impossible to stick in the open-court. He narrowly missed the play of the year in the first half -- a monstrous dunk in traffic after slicing through the zone that clanged off the back of the rim.
Dexter Pittman: smaller players can not guard him at the college level -- he's strong and quick and also has great footwork and touch in the low post. Definitely the top post scorer in college basketball. The only thing that slowed him down was foul trouble that was not really his fault, especially the charge that went against him for his 4th foul which Jay Bilas rightly called "ridiculous". Should be an NBA lottery pick by the end of the season. NBA comparison: a smaller Andrew Bynum.
Damion James: an excellent "role" player on the college level (in the sense that he isn't a primary shot-creator for Texas). He is a great finisher as a jump-shooter and in the lane. With great leaping ability, a mammoth wing-span and huge hands, he is a phenomenal rebounder -- he became Texas' all-time leading rebounder during the game. NBA comparison: a more athletic Brandon Bass with more range on his jump-shot.
Jai Lucas: really impressive in only his second game back from sitting out the first semester after transferring from Florida. A super-quick guard capable of ball-pressure who has range out to the three-point line, he should over-take Dogus Balbay as the main PG by the end of the season.
Jordan Hamilton: all the talent in the world but hasn't quite figured out how to play with discipline yet. A 6'7 athlete with elite 3-point range (4-6 from 3-pt range), he reminds me of Rudy Gay. He has a great assortment of floaters in the lane, but he needs to be a little more on-balance when he shoots them.
J'Covan Brown: an erratic freshman who can shoot you in and out of a game awfully quickly. He had an amazing cross-over to a reverse lay-up in the heart of the second-half, but against a team like Michigan State, one care-less play can be huge: Brown threw a lazy alley-oop to Hamilton on a 3-on-1 fast break instead of going for the easy lay-up. On the resulting turnover, the Spartans pushed the ball and got Pittman his second foul early in the first half, keeping Texas' big man on the bench for the rest of the half. He might be the key to Texas winning a national title -- he can do things the other two PG's (Lucas and Balbay) can't, but he will also do things the other two won't.
Dogus Balbay: against teams with elite athletes who can stay in front of him he is exposed for his utter lack of shooting ability. A great ball-defender, but when he doesn't have the ball in the half-court he is fairly useless. MSU was playing a one-man zone on him throughout most of the second half. The Spartans went to hack-a-Balbay with 3:00 left.
Gary Johnson: played one of the best games of his career against MSU. Has really developed his offensive touch and learned his role on the team. At 6'6 with long-arms and incredibly quick-feet, he is lethal on P/R defense. His ability to switch and cause turnovers on the Spartan's P/R was the difference in Texas' decisive run in the last 6 minutes of the second half. If a team has no legit low-post threat, a Texas line-up with Johnson and James in the front-court is a defensive juggernaut.

The important players on MSU -- seemingly all of whom are knock-down shooters:

Kalin Lucas: was exposed in a big-way against Texas. The Longhorns bevy of fast guards didn't give him an inch of space and challenged him to get around them on the perimeter -- he couldn't. He doesn't have that kind of elite speed and seemed rattled by the ball-pressure (6 turnovers), although he finally started using his body to draw fouls and get in the lane in the second half.
Korie Lucious: assumed the mantle of the go-to player as the game went on. A dead-eye shooter with no conscience, he plays with a lot of confidence. He had one great NBA move -- a back-up dribble into a pull-up 3 that nearly made Jai Lucas fall to the ground.
Chris Allen: another one of MSU's seemingly endless supply of knock-down shooters.
Darrell Summers: a similar game to Lucious, he also hit a few incredibly difficult jump-shots.
Delvon Roe: a combo forward with the ability to score from the 3-point line and the low post.
Draymond Green: plays a lot like Texas' Damion James -- a wide-body with great shooting range.

Michigan State breakdown:

A tough and disciplined veteran team who never backed down from the challenge of playing in Austin. They aren't nearly as talented as Texas, but they kept the game close the entire way. Just a phenomenal effort from the Spartans.
Their best 5 is Lucas/Lucious/Summers/Green/Roe. Every one of their players can shoot, dribble and play 1-on-1. They will not be out-executed; the only way to beat them is to out-talent them -- like UNC did in the Final Four last year.
A very well-coached and smart team: they used high posts and back-door cuts to alleviate Texas' ball-pressure. They also fast-breaked very efficiently and methodically into high-percentage shots.

Texas breakdown:

The ESPN announcers raved about the Texas defense for good reason -- they have 5 guards (Bradley, Balbay, Mason, Brown and Lucas) who can ball-hawk and 4 long-limbed forwards who can block shots in the paint (Pittman, James, Johnson and Wangmene). It's a credit to MSU's jump-shooting ability that they stayed close with Texas for so long; there is no room in the paint to score on the Longhorns.
The only real flaws on the team are free-throw shooting and the occasional knuckle-headed play by their freshmen. Depending on how Kansas is, this team not only has the chance to be the #1 team coming into March, but Texas could be one of the best college teams of the modern era.
If the refs allow them to play physical, there is no way to beat them. MSU was able to stay in the game because of some questionable calls on Pittman.

Wager: Wolves/Hawks

2009-12-22T01:09:00.000-08:00

Prediction: Atlanta (-9) at Minnesota

Why: Atlanta is an elite team; they just overwhelm teams like the Wolves with superior talent.

Why not: The Hawks do have a small front-line, if the Wolves can control the tempo and pound Jefferson inside (no homo) they might be able to cover.

What happened: Hawks 112, Wolves 87

Record ATS: 15-17-0